Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4bd7a152393dc6d407e3a9a616f6ba25fa444b0c9994ab87106608167ba50ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 35c | 590.97$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.69 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 54c | 531.87$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.27 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 354.58$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.91 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 265.79$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 53c | 246.2$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.95 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 46c | 238.19$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.89 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 73c | 233.6$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.5 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 56c | 196.83$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.94 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 50c | 187.63$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.96 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 150.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 69c | 139.16$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 51c | 128.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 23c | 124.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…9534backed Yes | 64c | 120.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 40c | 103.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 101.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…4c54backed No | 46c | 96.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 67c | 95.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 38c | 94.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 92.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 14c | 87.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 86.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 69c | 84.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…a752backed No | 58c | 65.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 34c | 61.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 56.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 70c | 54.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 54c | 53.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda7…2f51backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 70cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 46c | 52.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…cdddbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…1a00backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 48c | 49.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…7104backed Yes | 44c | 49.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 61c | 47.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 47c | 44.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 41c | 42.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 44c | 42.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 40.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 75c | 38.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 57c | 35.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 32.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 45c | 31.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…262cbacked No | 55c | 30.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 39c | 28.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 39c | 28.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 46c | 27.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 49c | 26.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 73c | 25.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 57c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 68c | 24.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 74c | 20.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcc…788cbacked No | 67c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…222fbacked No | 66c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.