Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4e2f1e4fea101a2902c51a57d49ab886d8a14ef5d7879a4623a260f4d0b13a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 66c | 341.47$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.47 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 35c | 264.37$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.23 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 24c | 228.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…1048backed Yes | 36c | 224.87$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 214.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 63c | 209.45$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.81 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 177.74$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 60c | 137.44$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 121$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 114.33$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 31c | 104.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 99.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 37c | 93.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 92.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 63c | 92.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 58c | 86.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 85.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 35c | 79.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x559c…aeedbacked No | 65c | 79.31$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 78.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 29c | 67.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 61.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 42c | 60.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 66c | 60.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…f0babacked Yes | 46c | 58.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 49.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 35c | 47.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 58c | 45.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 35.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 77c | 34.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…7f85backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 28.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 23.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 20.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 18.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.