Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe25c5270bdc8fe03bdbb884faf28b560d5dc5b5b546c624c54821354e916b2f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 63c | 355.23$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…f0babacked Yes | 62c | 270.15$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.48 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 264.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 35c | 228.97$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.31 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 42c | 198.75$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.53 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 191.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 37c | 153.65$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 34c | 152.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.91 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed Yes | 75c | 133.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 114.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 79.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 36c | 78.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb82…291cbacked Yes | 37c | 68.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +130%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 63.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 56.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 39c | 51.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 56c | 49.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 43c | 46.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf810…e67bbacked No | 66c | 45.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 47c | 44.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 43.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 42.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 39c | 40.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…6b2dbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 63c | 38.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 39c | 36.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 66c | 36.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 33.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc812…9350backed No | 67c | 33.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…9ec2backed Yes | 42c | 33.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 37c | 31.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 48c | 28.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 25.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 24.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…4bc5backed Yes | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 20.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked Yes | 62c | 18.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 64c | 17.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 17.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 16.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.