Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4e3af2fdd49c02ea5d434ed0ce9a64d5e6e41a95bd0773cf42b186dfe1c4a7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba44…7d2cbacked Yes | 68c | 1,264$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.62 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 559.73$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 24c | 373.48$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x800e…691bbacked No | 37c | 260$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.45per pick | 42cpaid | +115%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbad9…2647backed Yes | 21c | 203$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 40c | 187$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.01 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 21c | 186.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 184.11$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 15c | 168.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 164.49$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 153.86$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 18c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 146$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…2bdbbacked Yes | 21c | 143.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…c614backed No | 44c | 140$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 65cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 74c | 140$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked No | 44c | 140$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 17c | 126.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 111.74$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 110.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 23c | 108$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.05 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 105$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 100.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 24c | 96.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 95.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 81.03$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b48…fcf0backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +56%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 25c | 72.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 65.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 61.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 76c | 53.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc37…a2f4backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 21c | 51.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…416cbacked Yes | 33c | 49.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ad…5f89backed No | 75c | 46.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 40.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 79c | 40.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 40.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x136a…70e8backed No | 74c | 37.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 71c | 35.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 74c | 28.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 26.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 25.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 73c | 23.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 19.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 19.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 79c | 18.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.