Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b82ab0cd5820a77f1142516d4ce1747a2598189cd36c99f25d7f1f22ec57acb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 767.77$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 328.11$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 29c | 211.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 203.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 198.91$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 27c | 184.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 27c | 180.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 158.88$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 152.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 146$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 24c | 137.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 11c | 134.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 134.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 103.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 32c | 98.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 73c | 95.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d2…0868backed Yes | 32c | 95.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 72c | 88.38$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…04cebacked No | 73c | 84.49$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 32c | 76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 29c | 73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed No | 74c | 67.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 64c | 67.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 65.54$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 63.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 24c | 60.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 25c | 54.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 76c | 53.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 75c | 53.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 25c | 51.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 26c | 43.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 29c | 39.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ad…5f89backed No | 75c | 38.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x136a…70e8backed No | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 31c | 34.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 75c | 28.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 28.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 76c | 27.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 23.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 66c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 18.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.