Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4ec69983c7c621540d0860b3e49f3f46dd7916868ea891f32af341fede89a69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 1,238$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.52 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 44c | 713.12$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.81 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 36c | 702.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.9 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 46c | 495.99$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.89 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 396$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 40c | 353$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.39 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 326.82$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.54 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 250$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 226.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 215.77$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 215.37$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 208.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.22 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 40c | 205.41$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.86 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 205$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 200.11$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 159.49$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 45c | 129.21$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 42c | 120.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 116.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 60c | 109.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 105.93$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 70c | 99.53$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x697a…4024backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 42c | 81.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 76.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 75.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 43c | 65.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 59c | 63.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 43c | 61.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1046…a534backed Yes | 75c | 59.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 52.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 56c | 44.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 42.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 55c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 57c | 41.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…5749backed No | 62c | 40.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 59c | 40.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 57c | 39.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 41c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 42c | 35.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 30.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…808bbacked Yes | 43c | 30.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 74c | 28.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 42c | 27.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 50c | 27.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 52c | 26.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 58c | 26.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc525…de89backed No | 62c | 25.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 45c | 23.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 72c | 20.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…a3a9backed No | 60c | 20.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a74…05b2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 63c | 18.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked Yes | 60c | 18.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.