Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2355d2046c17c6db0898bf99f783b10f28ea84436a784d96be385849bf7d7f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 56c | 2,050$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.39 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 44c | 745$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.8 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 43c | 733.21$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.59 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 408.09$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.95 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 316.83$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 44c | 287$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.28 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 37c | 277.76$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 272.25$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 60c | 266.83$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.21 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 61c | 231.25$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.19 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked Yes | 43c | 192.02$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 175.16$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 41c | 169.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 56c | 169.7$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 40c | 148.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 41c | 146.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 57c | 144.81$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 139.24$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 60c | 139.09$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 128.35$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 115.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 53c | 105$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 40c | 103$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 98.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 51c | 92.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 90.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 36c | 82.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 45c | 80.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 79.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 49c | 76.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 42c | 75.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 55c | 71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 46c | 70.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 68.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 66.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d5…d3a6backed Yes | 48c | 63.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 64c | 56.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 42c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 42c | 52.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 39c | 47.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 39c | 44.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked No | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 44c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 43.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 59c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 41.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 36c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 41c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 40c | 37.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 35c | 37.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b04…b528backed No | 56c | 35.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 35.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 35.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d8…3c0cbacked Yes | 58c | 34.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e2…7c8cbacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 46c | 23.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 59c | 20.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf316…b4c2backed Yes | 50c | 20.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f3f0backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.