Tennis · resolved market
Hobart International: Tatjana Maria vs Venus Williams
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd50b298212f500d343fdc2d4dd860c0210d4718d4567a9356b3da3410ed8baa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mariaof Maria, Williams
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Maria | 79c | 7,299$5,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.98 | 655 | 58.9%386 W · 269 L | -32.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Maria | 78c | 4,010$3,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.43 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…622ebacked Williams | 10c | 3,167$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.24 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Maria | 80c | 3,057$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.52 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Williams | 41c | 2,804$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.76 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Maria | 65c | 2,525$1,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.48 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Williams | 42c | 2,430$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.02 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8f4cbacked Williams | 4c | 2,418$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Williams | 23c | 2,098$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.69 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ceb…3656backed Williams | 21c | 1,500$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 32cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Williams | 18c | 1,379$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.72 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Williams | 17c | 882.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Williams | 15c | 757.24$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.86 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Williams | 22c | 750.11$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.02 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Williams | 39c | 696.02$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.57 | 192 | 41.1%79 W · 113 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Williams | 42c | 625.23$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.93 | 261 | 31.4%82 W · 179 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Williams | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 123 | 13.8%17 W · 106 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Williams | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f2…49b3backed Maria | 59c | 499.99$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.8 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Williams | 9c | 499.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 580 | 21.9%127 W · 453 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Maria | 61c | 470$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.3 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Maria | 60c | 462$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 761 | 46.6%355 W · 406 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…d6a7backed Maria | 54c | 455.76$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.96 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f7…21b8backed Williams | 8c | 330.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Maria | 65c | 300.07$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Williams | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…32bbbacked Maria | 80c | 268$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Williams | 30c | 218.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Williams | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Maria | 59c | 202.05$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Williams | 8c | 199.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Maria | 62c | 162.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…70e3backed Maria | 58c | 153.06$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.03 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Maria | 61c | 147.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Williams | 29c | 146.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Maria | 79c | 145$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Maria | 60c | 136$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…c9e4backed Williams | 15c | 133.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Williams | 22c | 126.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Maria | 60c | 124$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Williams | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 182 | 41.8%76 W · 106 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…9bcbbacked Maria | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…72a4backed Williams | 18c | 95.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Williams | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…675bbacked Maria | 69c | 89.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 137 | 63.5%87 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Williams | 32c | 78.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 537 | 52.3%281 W · 256 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Williams | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Williams | 32c | 61.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Williams | 30c | 60.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…db07backed Williams | 50c | 60.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | -14.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Maria | 54c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Williams | 33c | 59.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…e9d3backed Maria | 72c | 56.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Williams | 34c | 54.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Williams | 33c | 51.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed Williams | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…73f1backed Williams | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 58.8%97 W · 68 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdc…c974backed Williams | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Maria | 67c | 40.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Williams | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff7…6938backed Williams | 40c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Williams | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked Williams | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked Williams | 30c | 34.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d35…8518backed Maria | 62c | 34.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Maria | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed Williams | 40c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Maria | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Williams | 47c | 30.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Williams | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Maria | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…5dfabacked Maria | 61c | 22.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Maria | 59c | 21.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…d6c0backed Maria | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Maria | 63c | 19.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Maria | 59c | 19.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…697abacked Maria | 78c | 16.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hobart International: Tatjana Maria vs Venus Williamsthis page
- Maria vs. Williams: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Maria vs. Williams: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.