Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd543cbba4951769091e2bff333c0ae5955a4c29a27d9f642d553e3c055f8ce42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 600$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.81 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 12c | 258.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 12c | 239$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 19c | 232.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 218$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 25c | 169.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 12c | 166.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…491bbacked Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 71c | 141.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 140.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 126$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 25c | 121$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 72c | 119$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 71c | 110.32$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 29c | 106.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 10c | 100.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…80a0backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…3bd7backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…cb52backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 80c | 92.1$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 14c | 90.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 84.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 84.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 28c | 82.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 82.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 29c | 69.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 64.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 62.54$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 61.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddce…7194backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 72c | 59.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 55.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 55.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 29c | 55.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 28c | 49.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 28c | 49.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 29c | 43.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 43.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 71c | 42.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 41.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5589…a3fabacked No | 71c | 41.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…c579backed Yes | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 52cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 27c | 40.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 40.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 72c | 39.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb60…9784backed No | 71c | 31.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 29.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed No | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed No | 73c | 21.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 74c | 16.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 74c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.