Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96566c824cdab8459c8e642f47b0d9e4e14f95b467c1cf7f3a61724b8bf8cd57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 61c | 556.19$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.23 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 439.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.09 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 58c | 424.44$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.44 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 374.98$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 45c | 348.94$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.05 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 333.44$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.91 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 41c | 277.21$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.86 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 4c | 268.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.92 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 15c | 250.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.56 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 13c | 237.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.87 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 41c | 216.12$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 37c | 208.09$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 7c | 185.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.79 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 12c | 182.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.32 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 18c | 178.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.98 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 23c | 178.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.53 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 21c | 159.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.58 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 56c | 146.97$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 71c | 140.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 69c | 140.55$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.59 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 46c | 138.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 60c | 110.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 12c | 109.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.49 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 18c | 109.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.94 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 26c | 105.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 15c | 103.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.22 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43d1…a942backed No | 78c | 102.4$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 34c | 102.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 18c | 101$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.84 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked Yes | 24c | 99.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.87 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 13c | 84.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.47 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 14c | 83.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 62c | 65.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 63.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 28c | 63.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 18c | 62.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 76c | 55.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 37c | 54.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 34c | 52.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 31c | 51.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 60c | 45.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 70c | 45.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 41c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 24c | 43.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5728…d2b2backed Yes | 41c | 41.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked Yes | 74c | 37.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 55c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 63c | 31.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 67c | 31.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…6872backed No | 39c | 30.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 30.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 66c | 30.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 70c | 28.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed No | 41c | 27.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed No | 74c | 26.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 74c | 24.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…7171backed No | 77c | 22.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 45c | 22.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.