Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc154d4f3bba8aa1699fe39b6f102cfa33e00e4e380f528cb269019cce1ba866
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 32c | 514.52$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.16 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 27c | 437.05$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 362.19$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.94 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 22c | 325.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 26c | 314.17$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 299$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 245.62$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 218$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 28c | 177.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 167.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 14c | 136.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 15c | 136.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 46c | 124.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 15c | 107.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 14c | 103.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…cb52backed Yes | 18c | 100.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…3145backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddce…7194backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 21c | 98.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 77c | 89$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…491bbacked Yes | 20c | 87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 29c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 65.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 24c | 57.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 71c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 21c | 50.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes | 24c | 50.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 25c | 42.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 28c | 41.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a09…6a68backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 28.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 79c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 48c | 25.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…a800backed Yes | 64c | 23.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 78c | 23.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 17.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.