NHL · resolved market
Kraken vs. Flyers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd54d283da2263e541de2354062847866e9c9c83bae2a6572d404960fe0c377bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Krakenof Kraken, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Kraken | 43c | 4,094$1,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,340.48 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Flyers | 46c | 3,666$1,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,704.56 | 323 | 31.3%101 W · 222 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ec…4347backed Flyers | 57c | 3,627$2,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Flyers | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,163 | 2.3%27 W · 1,136 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Kraken | 42c | 1,887$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.85 | 493 | 51.3%253 W · 240 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…ca37backed Flyers | 59c | 1,702$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 152 | 61.8%94 W · 58 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…fa5dbacked Flyers | 56c | 1,502$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.12 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb703…6f88backed Kraken | 44c | 1,499$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.44 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Flyers | 58c | 1,300$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Flyers | 59c | 1,220$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e1…bc75backed Kraken | 44c | 1,211$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aee…17b1backed Kraken | 44c | 1,207$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3a…4f87backed Kraken | 44c | 1,207$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Kraken | 41c | 1,036$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.29 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Kraken | 42c | 924.7$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.15 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Kraken | 41c | 796.98$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.22 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Kraken | 43c | 760.76$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.36 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Flyers | 57c | 419.95$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.37 | 669 | 51%341 W · 328 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Flyers | 12c | 358.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 448 | 48.9%219 W · 229 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Kraken | 42c | 301.73$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.01 | 724 | 44.6%323 W · 401 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed Flyers | 8c | 264.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…8938backed Flyers | 50c | 232.66$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.22 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…1ca6backed Kraken | 43c | 198$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…0fb7backed Kraken | 43c | 180$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa045…29c2backed Flyers | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf1…aa3fbacked Flyers | 57c | 178$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0abe…b0bfbacked Kraken | 43c | 178$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Flyers | 39c | 173.26$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b85…f51cbacked Kraken | 43c | 170$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0995…fa39backed Flyers | 57c | 170$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Flyers | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f9…99dbbacked Kraken | 43c | 156$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c39…e465backed Flyers | 57c | 156$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Flyers | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Kraken | 47c | 132.62$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.29 | 198 | 36.9%73 W · 125 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Kraken | 40c | 121.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.33 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…7519backed Kraken | 43c | 121$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…0712backed Flyers | 57c | 121$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Kraken | 29c | 115.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.1 | 854 | 64.2%548 W · 306 L | +64.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Kraken | 42c | 111.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.09 | 840 | 51.4%432 W · 408 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Flyers | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 351 | 54.1%190 W · 161 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Flyers | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 260 | 59.6%155 W · 105 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Flyers | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 285 | 42.1%120 W · 165 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Kraken | 42c | 99.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 818 | 46%376 W · 442 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Flyers | 58c | 99.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 508 | 57.7%293 W · 215 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…de0abacked Flyers | 57c | 95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…990abacked Kraken | 43c | 95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Kraken | 38c | 90.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24e…3100backed Kraken | 43c | 90$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa0…b1f7backed Flyers | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Flyers | 76c | 89.29$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Flyers | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Kraken | 42c | 84.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Flyers | 57c | 84.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 237 | 61.6%146 W · 91 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fba…22f2backed Kraken | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…5d2dbacked Flyers | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ab…7ff9backed Flyers | 57c | 68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…46aebacked Kraken | 43c | 68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf7…6165backed Kraken | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…d2afbacked Kraken | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Kraken | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 96 | 65.6%63 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kraken | 23c | 45.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Kraken | 26c | 45.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Flyers | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 419 | 54.4%228 W · 191 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Flyers | 56c | 42.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Flyers | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Flyers | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71b7…958dbacked Flyers | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6710…00c9backed Flyers | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -7.8wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…515cbacked Flyers | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1c…06c9backed Flyers | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Flyers | 58c | 34.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 417 | 57.3%239 W · 178 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…45b3backed Kraken | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf470…62d2backed Flyers | 71c | 28.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Kraken | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…f3fbbacked Flyers | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed Flyers | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 301 | 55.1%166 W · 135 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04cb…45fcbacked Flyers | 58c | 21.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…a70abacked Flyers | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1a…823dbacked Flyers | 59c | 19.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b6…8580backed Flyers | 58c | 18.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Flyers | 71c | 15.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.