TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Arizona Wildcatsof Arizona Wildcats, Houston Cougars
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,454

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,454 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ec1…057cbacked Arizona Wildcats53c9,409$4,956 inWon+$4,452.618957.3%51 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Arizona Wildcats51c5,198$2,651 inWon+$2,547.2246246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd36…6ec9backed Houston Cougars49c4,198$2,057 inLost-$2,057.235752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arizona Wildcats50c2,996$1,498 inWon+$1,4982,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Arizona Wildcats50c2,523$1,261 inWon+$1,261.2927755.2%153 W · 124 L+19.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Houston Cougars47c2,503$1,176 inLost-$1,176.312,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Houston Cougars48c2,222$1,067 inLost-$1,066.552,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Houston Cougars49c1,082$530 inLost-$530.324040%16 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Houston Cougars48c1,049$503 inLost-$503.481,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fdb…0103backed Houston Cougars50c950$475 inLost-$47510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5fc…adbabacked Arizona Wildcats52c822.75$428 inWon+$394.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Houston Cougars50c575.12$287 inLost-$287.2410543.8%46 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Arizona Wildcats52c570.97$297 inWon+$274.061030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-42.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Arizona Wildcats51c196.08$100 inWon+$96.0882846.1%382 W · 446 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e2…2ed0backed Houston Cougars51c137.25$69 inLost-$69.3911552.2%60 W · 55 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Arizona Wildcats50c104.6$52 inWon+$52.31,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb68b…9b23backed Arizona Wildcats50c100$50 inWon+$502969%20 W · 9 L+6.1wins+0.21per pick48cpaid+46.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Arizona Wildcats52c99.13$52 inWon+$47.5862753%332 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2442…0c2bbacked Arizona Wildcats52c95.31$50 inWon+$45.7514051.4%72 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Houston Cougars50c86.69$43 inLost-$43.359050%45 W · 45 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed Arizona Wildcats52c85.78$45 inWon+$41.1812245.1%55 W · 67 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Houston Cougars47c85.11$40 inLost-$4062140.4%251 W · 370 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Arizona Wildcats53c65.46$35 inWon+$30.7713050%65 W · 65 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Arizona Wildcats49c58.67$29 inWon+$29.921,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5127…f137backed Arizona Wildcats54c46.13$25 inWon+$21.356841.2%28 W · 40 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce9d…a219backed Houston Cougars52c38.13$20 inLost-$19.837542.7%32 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Wildcats50c38$19 inWon+$193,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24a1…3d34backed Houston Cougars49c33.91$17 inLost-$16.781963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+26.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Arizona Wildcats51c30$15 inWon+$14.771655.3%396 W · 320 L+26.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Arizona Wildcats52c19.77$10 inWon+$9.5760954.5%332 W · 277 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.