MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd56b43f6922d4238058082c9a9b9522937ce8e6653db3cb860eaf7a10cb7a411
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 47c | 11,842$5,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,617.11 | 1,681 | 50.1%842 W · 839 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 52c | 8,370$4,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,012.29 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50f…3ad3backed Under | 47c | 3,136$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.01 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 53c | 2,839$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.67 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 54c | 2,262$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.75 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 46c | 2,200$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.99 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Over | 53c | 2,109$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.05 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 53c | 1,878$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.71 | 493 | 58.8%290 W · 203 L | +30.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 53c | 1,597$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.77 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 53c | 1,121$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.83 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Over | 54c | 1,024$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.38 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 454 | 51.3%233 W · 221 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 55c | 949.97$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.03 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Under | 47c | 928.24$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.68 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…a64abacked Under | 47c | 927$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.69 | 323 | 50.5%163 W · 160 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…9e5ebacked Under | 46c | 673.45$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.79 | 467 | 49.5%231 W · 236 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 47c | 550.91$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.93 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57e…bbd6backed Under | 47c | 484.1$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.53 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 53c | 481.04$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.09 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 53c | 473.98$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.77 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 46c | 460.02$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.41 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 53c | 419.91$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.36 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 56c | 416.7$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.35 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 53c | 390.66$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.61 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 375.5$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.73 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…457fbacked Under | 47c | 308.3$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 319 | 49.5%158 W · 161 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed Under | 46c | 307.7$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.54 | 203 | 51.7%105 W · 98 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 52c | 306.19$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.97 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a7…fc82backed Under | 44c | 265.96$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.48 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 242.5$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.26 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Under | 48c | 179.93$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.37 | 258 | 51.9%134 W · 124 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 53c | 174.83$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.17 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 53c | 165.02$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.56 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47a…68e6backed Under | 46c | 154.82$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…c8a6backed Under | 47c | 154.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.62 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Under | 47c | 123.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 1,306 | 50.7%662 W · 644 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed Under | 47c | 123.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 293 | 52.9%155 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 53c | 104$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 53c | 102.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 53c | 90.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 86.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Over | 43c | 65.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1812…0db6backed Under | 45c | 63.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Under | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 26c | 52.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 41c | 50.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 634 | 54.3%344 W · 290 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5d…d375backed Over | 55c | 48.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Over | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 53c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…8ba8backed Under | 46c | 41.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 46c | 40.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 46c | 39.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 54c | 35.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 53c | 34.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Under | 47c | 32.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 457 | 49%224 W · 233 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 49c | 31.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 55c | 30.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…b30ebacked Under | 48c | 30.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 48c | 26.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Over | 57c | 25.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Over | 52c | 24.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 53c | 20.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 321 | 53.9%173 W · 148 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston AstrosSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.