Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd56f9586b361d18e097fea3770badbbb2d37f5955186a21bc7f18131ad4d251b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 483.52$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 337.36$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 6c | 311.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 26c | 248.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.69 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 25c | 220.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.13 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 203.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 202.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 64c | 181.07$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 77c | 176.62$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.86 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 26c | 161.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.94 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 38c | 149.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.52 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 149.79$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.97 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 139$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 122.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.11 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 41c | 116.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 105.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 12c | 98.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…8dcbbacked Yes | 38c | 79.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 19c | 77.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…3f67backed Yes | 76c | 69.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 78c | 67.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 64.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 62.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 76c | 55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 69c | 51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 27c | 50.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 74c | 44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 69c | 42.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 35.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd41c…4859backed Yes | 80c | 32.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 32.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 71c | 31.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 71c | 28.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 77c | 23.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 57c | 22.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 79c | 15.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.