Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6af1ffb616ae10fec441ade10624e5ae2c0def12d709c6bb722475acc0c4d1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 381.6$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 263.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 40c | 220.83$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 211.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 36c | 195.33$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 184.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 46c | 171.49$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 142.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 40c | 138.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 44c | 105.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 103.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 66c | 101.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 32c | 100.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 33c | 100.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 70c | 97.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 70c | 97.79$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 73c | 90.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 71c | 85.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 81.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 79.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 27c | 75.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 52c | 74.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 64.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…3f67backed No | 50c | 59.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 57.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 57.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 38c | 56.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 61c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 32c | 54.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 53.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 38c | 52.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 50.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 50.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 58c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 44.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…6424backed Yes | 51c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked No | 62c | 43.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 66c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked No | 76c | 42.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 56c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 35.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…7b51backed Yes | 41c | 34.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 59c | 34.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 32c | 34.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 33.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 38c | 32.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 77c | 31.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 52c | 31.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 44c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 49c | 30.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 36c | 28.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 54c | 27.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fe…68b5backed No | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 23.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 63c | 21.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 68c | 19.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 18.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52e…8f98backed No | 71c | 18.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -7.2wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…6083backed No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 66c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 73c | 15.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 75c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed No | 74c | 13.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.