Australian A League · resolved market
Will Adelaide United FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5927e04baf789e465ac83928d0e8d60432834e9b6a660cf81bf48ba0f7932d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 68c | 2,634$1,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.2 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 2,268$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.33 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 1,183$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.83 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked No | 39c | 1,083$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.33 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Yes | 58c | 864.79$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…5ddebacked Yes | 27c | 824.1$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.95 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…95c4backed Yes | 27c | 740$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 64c | 675.61$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.52 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da8…e5afbacked Yes | 71c | 600.97$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 7c | 600$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Yes | 23c | 587.31$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 77c | 587$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.71 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 67c | 519.18$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.18 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 28c | 500.05$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d7…a36dbacked Yes | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 27c | 447.34$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.33 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 26c | 400.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.87 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 72c | 391.47$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.53 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 18c | 369.38$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9380…a275backed Yes | 55c | 358$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 33c | 338.58$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.85 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x461b…ca27backed Yes | 25c | 320$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Yes | 69c | 302.8$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.72 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Yes | 67c | 298.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 48c | 282.79$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.54 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 24c | 278.88$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985e…6894backed No | 17c | 273.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +199.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 79c | 215$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Yes | 25c | 212$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…272bbacked Yes | 25c | 212$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7c…d12fbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…0c26backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 26c | 192.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 48c | 147$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…5fbbbacked Yes | 75c | 120.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +62%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 25c | 104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2367…c5b3backed Yes | 27c | 84.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Yes | 61c | 82.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 26c | 77.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…a1b6backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…664abacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x503d…9267backed Yes | 26c | 53.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 50c | 51.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7d…2353backed Yes | 26c | 50.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 24c | 50.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -40%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcefc…e5e8backed No | 38c | 35.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 48c | 35.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 40c | 34.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc7…29a1backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316a…7c78backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked Yes | 68c | 19.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb918…ef06backed No | 76c | 19.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0101…f054backed No | 76c | 18.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0c…b43fbacked No | 76c | 18.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd452…5a62backed No | 76c | 15.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 14.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f35…47e8backed No | 76c | 14.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adelaide United FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-01-17?Yes won
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.