Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5a939cc85993cf1897bbe53ca8528cc6e3b1f64a81291e0ce4861f5a8aaec1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 49c | 502.18$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.12 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 53c | 407.69$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.92 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 329.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 216.04$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 203.12$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 172.29$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 37c | 153.09$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 115.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 96.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 47c | 83.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed No | 50c | 82.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 46c | 80.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 59c | 79.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 57c | 77.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 71.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 46c | 68.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 60c | 66.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 51c | 60.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 49c | 58.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 49c | 58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 52c | 57.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 58c | 56.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 38c | 54.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 60c | 54.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 46c | 54.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 50.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 49c | 50.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 41c | 48.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 50c | 44.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 52c | 42.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 37c | 40.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…ee28backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 54c | 39.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 49c | 35.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 47c | 35.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 64c | 35.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 32.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 48c | 27.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 62c | 24.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 51c | 23.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Yes | 50c | 23.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 51c | 22.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 50c | 22.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 19.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 63c | 19.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 65c | 19.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 18.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 79c | 17.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.