Tennis · resolved market
Qatar Open, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Roberto Carballes Baena
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5cd4a2e48d0f3c7f418d1a45add82094c1c63bb0d9eac8fb736cb9a408949c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baenaof Mochizuki, Baena
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe786…b716backed Baena | 62c | 2,484$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.1 | 92 | 64.1%59 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mochizuki | 38c | 1,033$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.54 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Mochizuki | 39c | 501.68$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.73 | 320 | 31.3%100 W · 220 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Mochizuki | 36c | 420.31$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.31 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…6405backed Baena | 60c | 334.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.21 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Mochizuki | 17c | 331$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…152abacked Baena | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Mochizuki | 44c | 299.97$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 3,862 | 34.9%1,348 W · 2,514 L | +92.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…9c6ebacked Baena | 61c | 287.76$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.39 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Mochizuki | 41c | 270$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.21 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Mochizuki | 18c | 223.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 262 | 27.9%73 W · 189 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Mochizuki | 7c | 220.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59aa…3376backed Baena | 78c | 190.73$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Mochizuki | 40c | 177.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabe0…5adbbacked Mochizuki | 59c | 170.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 331 | 63.7%211 W · 120 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…a8a9backed Mochizuki | 18c | 138.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Mochizuki | 41c | 121$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Mochizuki | 19c | 113.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Mochizuki | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4,070 | 39.7%1,617 W · 2,453 L | +92.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a9…ad8bbacked Mochizuki | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Mochizuki | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Mochizuki | 19c | 84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Baena | 80c | 83.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Mochizuki | 26c | 78.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 43.1%94 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Mochizuki | 18c | 76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1362…16ccbacked Baena | 37c | 66.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Baena | 74c | 65.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Baena | 58c | 63.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mochizuki | 19c | 59.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…7ee6backed Baena | 59c | 56.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Baena | 49c | 55.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Mochizuki | 24c | 54.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Mochizuki | 41c | 50.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Baena | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Mochizuki | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,332 | 46.6%1,087 W · 1,245 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Mochizuki | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Baena | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Mochizuki | 41c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 381 | 33.9%129 W · 252 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Baena | 59c | 43.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 153 | 43.8%67 W · 86 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9963…32e4backed Baena | 61c | 40.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf226…9c0fbacked Baena | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Mochizuki | 37c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Mochizuki | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 643 | 58.8%378 W · 265 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Mochizuki | 40c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 530 | 58.1%308 W · 222 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Baena | 58c | 23.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 7,100 | 49.7%3,530 W · 3,570 L | +107.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Baena | 58c | 22.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 949 | 40.1%381 W · 568 L | +30.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Baena | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 164 | 68.9%113 W · 51 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Baena | 80c | 13.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 6,740 | 48.8%3,288 W · 3,452 L | +58.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Qatar Open, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Roberto Carballes Baenathis page
- Mochizuki vs. Baena: Match O/U 21.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.