Lol · resolved market

LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular Season

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5d4307bee4d8bdcc143670a57d74ca225beaddafb16726de9812ab7ab71fc99

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Convictionof Conviction, Blue Otter
Resolved: May 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,272
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $33,596

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,272 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Lol
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7d4d…8525backed Blue Otter	28c	8,612$2,379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,379.04	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed Conviction	71c	1,822$1,288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$533.88	169	42%71 W · 98 L	-9.0wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-14%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Conviction	77c	1,230$942 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288.31	1,007	47.9%482 W · 525 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed Blue Otter	27c	1,128$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	1,218	58.1%708 W · 510 L	+44.2wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked Conviction	76c	1,000$760 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240	511	60.3%308 W · 203 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Conviction	73c	898.11$656 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242.49	1,216	44.4%540 W · 676 L	-12.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Conviction	77c	895.66$691 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.67	2,495	47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L	-32.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e35…2614backed Blue Otter	10c	882.36$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.47	66	56.1%37 W · 29 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Conviction	71c	871.81$616 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255.43	434	42.4%184 W · 250 L	-18.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…a2cbbacked Blue Otter	28c	782.77$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219	245	54.3%133 W · 112 L	+10.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf56c…fcbdbacked Blue Otter	24c	477.93$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.13	513	48.3%248 W · 265 L	+9.6wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Blue Otter	11c	471.45$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.86	2,156	53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L	+57.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x581f…9d8ebacked Conviction	70c	428.57$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.57	170	42.9%73 W · 97 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Blue Otter	20c	423.44$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.26	869	43.2%375 W · 494 L	-5.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Conviction	70c	384.29$269 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.29	390	55.4%216 W · 174 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1ef…4a40backed Blue Otter	28c	360$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.44	88	34.1%30 W · 58 L	-5.7wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Conviction	76c	350$267 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.34	1,599	46.8%748 W · 851 L	-48.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb845…ca23backed Blue Otter	12c	342.25$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.73	76	28.9%22 W · 54 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5124…4500backed Blue Otter	10c	326.29$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.44	127	27.6%35 W · 92 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Conviction	79c	320$254 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.15	2,938	44.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L	-92.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ca2…5d25backed Conviction	73c	313.55$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.29	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.13per pick	60cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa485…a7d5backed Blue Otter	6c	303.37$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	253	45.8%116 W · 137 L	+9.0wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8a8…48c0backed Blue Otter	23c	300$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Conviction	77c	299.25$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.99	621	58.8%365 W · 256 L	+32.6wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Blue Otter	27c	289.68$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79	465	52.7%245 W · 220 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28a3…f681backed Blue Otter	12c	285.5$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.16	370	39.5%146 W · 224 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Blue Otter	8c	285.36$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.42	1,593	43.8%697 W · 896 L	-74.2wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3aba…debfbacked Blue Otter	26c	278.18$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.48	64	25%16 W · 48 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Blue Otter	14c	277.16$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.58	1,310	37.3%489 W · 821 L	-86.3wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Conviction	77c	260.56$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.56	1,663	59.5%990 W · 673 L	+98.5wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked Blue Otter	22c	230$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.6	331	25.7%85 W · 246 L	-17.6wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cc0…7faabacked Blue Otter	24c	225$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	113	29.2%33 W · 80 L	-9.6wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x31ac…2a39backed Blue Otter	18c	216.72$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	44	50%22 W · 22 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0de7…62d0backed Blue Otter	20c	196.93$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.41	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa44a…88ecbacked Conviction	75c	176.42$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.5	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5341…92d6backed Blue Otter	21c	172.84$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.08	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34f9…12ebbacked Blue Otter	23c	170.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	306	32%98 W · 208 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Blue Otter	12c	154.81$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.58	166	34.9%58 W · 108 L	-19.4wins	-0.12per pick	47cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbfa8…6e47backed Conviction	70c	142.86$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.86	47	68.1%32 W · 15 L	+8.2wins	+0.17per pick	51cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x6859…2d79backed Blue Otter	15c	140$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	101	55.4%56 W · 45 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	-3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e45…39dabacked Blue Otter	16c	136.5$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.67	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Blue Otter	14c	134.07$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.77	1,200	54.1%649 W · 551 L	+28.9wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Blue Otter	13c	126.57$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.91	1,922	42.2%811 W · 1,111 L	-45.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2edd…cf00backed Blue Otter	12c	125$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	55	49.1%27 W · 28 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Blue Otter	15c	125$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.75	797	45.8%365 W · 432 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c0b…ef0cbacked Blue Otter	13c	120$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	189	42.3%80 W · 109 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Blue Otter	17c	115.67$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.49	129	37.2%48 W · 81 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Blue Otter	17c	106.58$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	115	40%46 W · 69 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Blue Otter	11c	102.74$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.27	1,356	51.1%693 W · 663 L	-21.2wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce5…a07fbacked Conviction	70c	100$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	90	60%54 W · 36 L	+10.6wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+30%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf21d…2e9abacked Blue Otter	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.69	381	54.3%207 W · 174 L	+23.3wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Blue Otter	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	924	50.9%470 W · 454 L	+14.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x337e…9b4ebacked Blue Otter	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	325	54.8%178 W · 147 L	+8.5wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa1…d5dabacked Blue Otter	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	238	31.5%75 W · 163 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x422d…7e39backed Blue Otter	16c	92.73$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	97	45.4%44 W · 53 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0633…cfdebacked Conviction	73c	89.31$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.12	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	62cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f25…51f3backed Conviction	80c	81.25$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.25	153	57.5%88 W · 65 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Blue Otter	15c	80.31$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.82	1,643	44.4%730 W · 913 L	-42.1wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-14%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Blue Otter	20c	78.83$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.81	753	42.5%320 W · 433 L	-14.0wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Blue Otter	26c	77.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,831	17.1%313 W · 1,518 L	-236.0wins	-0.13per pick	30cpaid	-46%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xc524…bab9backed Blue Otter	17c	70.15$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Blue Otter	19c	62.71$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.05	2,825	41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L	-14.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xde64…a821backed Conviction	79c	55.14$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.58	22	86.4%19 W · 3 L	+3.3wins	+0.15per pick	71cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Conviction	73c	54.66$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.76	303	57.1%173 W · 130 L	-8.2wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d33…1192backed Blue Otter	29c	41.72$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	122	41.8%51 W · 71 L	-8.0wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Conviction	74c	41.72$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.02	1,061	54.7%580 W · 481 L	+13.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ba…ab49backed Conviction	70c	35.71$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.71	87	55.2%48 W · 39 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked Conviction	70c	18.86$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.66	285	53%151 W · 134 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular Seasonthis page
Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Blue Otter (+1.5)Blue Otter won
LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter - Game 1 WinnerConviction won
LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter - Game 2 WinnerBlue Otter won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular Season

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event