Lol · resolved market
LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17ede9c814462896b3670f9538ba135a323904739b74455bea8c7dc2bc4c0b77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blue Otterof Conviction, Blue Otter
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d4d…8525backed Blue Otter | 40c | 4,000$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,415.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Blue Otter | 22c | 1,146$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.52 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Conviction | 65c | 1,080$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.78 | 1,940 | 48.1%934 W · 1,006 L | +22.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…a2cbbacked Blue Otter | 36c | 1,019$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.09 | 245 | 54.3%133 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Conviction | 60c | 749.98$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.99 | 2,825 | 41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L | -14.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Conviction | 60c | 587.83$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.7 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Conviction | 78c | 548$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.44 | 447 | 43.6%195 W · 252 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Conviction | 78c | 520.37$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.2 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Conviction | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 303 | 57.1%173 W · 130 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6e…1ebfbacked Conviction | 42c | 442.37$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.77 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Conviction | 75c | 420.75$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.56 | 434 | 42.4%184 W · 250 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4e…6c11backed Conviction | 61c | 408.86$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.94 | 367 | 49.9%183 W · 184 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…5c4dbacked Conviction | 78c | 405.34$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.86 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Conviction | 60c | 405$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.75 | 1,061 | 54.7%580 W · 481 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…dacfbacked Conviction | 76c | 363.26$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.32 | 289 | 65.1%188 W · 101 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Conviction | 77c | 358.43$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.71 | 244 | 45.1%110 W · 134 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6b…66b6backed Blue Otter | 22c | 342$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.76 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9da2…4b3bbacked Conviction | 33c | 330.82$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c66…c204backed Conviction | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dae…0336backed Conviction | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…b387backed Blue Otter | 22c | 299.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.99 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…fcbdbacked Conviction | 78c | 294.17$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.47 | 513 | 48.3%248 W · 265 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed Blue Otter | 27c | 277.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.11 | 436 | 42.4%185 W · 251 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Conviction | 28c | 275.06$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 331 | 25.7%85 W · 246 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75c1…22e4backed Conviction | 67c | 240.01$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc400…21a7backed Conviction | 63c | 239$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.46 | 231 | 49.8%115 W · 116 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe703…37ddbacked Blue Otter | 36c | 220$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.92 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x115a…98e1backed Blue Otter | 64c | 184.78$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 167 | 62.3%104 W · 63 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf28…db5dbacked Blue Otter | 76c | 181$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed Conviction | 60c | 160.01$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.59 | 505 | 49.3%249 W · 256 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Conviction | 39c | 127.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 1,671 | 57.9%968 W · 703 L | +70.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Blue Otter | 32c | 127.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.71 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…f792backed Conviction | 76c | 125.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.35 | 392 | 66.6%261 W · 131 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8339…65dabacked Conviction | 15c | 117$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Conviction | 60c | 116.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +30%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed Conviction | 78c | 111.78$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.19 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Blue Otter | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 306 | 32%98 W · 208 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Blue Otter | 30c | 106.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Blue Otter | 23c | 98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 486 | 52.1%253 W · 233 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Blue Otter | 25c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 751 | 50.7%381 W · 370 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…2e9abacked Conviction | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 381 | 54.3%207 W · 174 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…94bebacked Blue Otter | 33c | 79.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 465 | 52.7%245 W · 220 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf06…c9ffbacked Blue Otter | 62c | 67.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 633 | 52%329 W · 304 L | +39.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Blue Otter | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 618 | 49.8%308 W · 310 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed Conviction | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 476 | 30.7%146 W · 330 L | -13.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x632f…4fcbbacked Blue Otter | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Conviction | 57c | 49.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 753 | 42.5%320 W · 433 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d33…1192backed Blue Otter | 22c | 48.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 122 | 41.8%51 W · 71 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Blue Otter | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2212backed Conviction | 76c | 39.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…1bfebacked Blue Otter | 64c | 36.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 251 | 65.7%165 W · 86 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Conviction | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | +16.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…6fe0backed Conviction | 62c | 31.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 336 | 42.3%142 W · 194 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed Conviction | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 393 | 52.4%206 W · 187 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…fa45backed Conviction | 64c | 27.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Conviction | 60c | 27.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 204 | 39.2%80 W · 124 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Conviction | 47c | 27.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 227 | 58.1%132 W · 95 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Conviction | 77c | 25.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 190 | 41.1%78 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Conviction | 79c | 22.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -19.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffa…7710backed Conviction | 78c | 22.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Conviction | 54c | 18.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,599 | 46.8%748 W · 851 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x618e…9981backed Conviction | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…d6fcbacked Conviction | 79c | 16.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 158 | 71.5%113 W · 45 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Blue Otter (+1.5)Blue Otter won
- LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular SeasonConviction won
- LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter - Game 1 WinnerConviction won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.