Lol · resolved market
LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e5eb99353caf10fc47d8406722dd4da146505ec70941b835441b255a70c0a41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Convictionof Conviction, Blue Otter
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Conviction | 78c | 4,400$3,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.82 | 2,004 | 58.2%1,166 W · 838 L | +86.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…a7abbacked Blue Otter | 39c | 4,108$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Blue Otter | 22c | 2,637$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.16 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Blue Otter | 25c | 1,858$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.63 | 1,940 | 48.1%934 W · 1,006 L | +22.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Conviction | 77c | 1,086$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.65 | 434 | 42.4%184 W · 250 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…930fbacked Blue Otter | 22c | 940.66$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.95 | 1,216 | 44.4%540 W · 676 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Conviction | 68c | 650$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.25 | 303 | 57.1%173 W · 130 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Conviction | 78c | 610.13$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.51 | 244 | 45.1%110 W · 134 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…6a90backed Conviction | 77c | 608.26$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.6 | 169 | 42%71 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Conviction | 78c | 570.4$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe74b…ee88backed Conviction | 60c | 565$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226 | 862 | 51.3%442 W · 420 L | +51.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Conviction | 78c | 556$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.32 | 447 | 43.6%195 W · 252 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Blue Otter | 24c | 456.84$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 1,372 | 48.6%667 W · 705 L | +57.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…e21dbacked Conviction | 62c | 404.92$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.92 | 997 | 47.1%470 W · 527 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Conviction | 59c | 315.16$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.52 | 1,061 | 54.7%580 W · 481 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…b387backed Blue Otter | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c66…c204backed Conviction | 58c | 299.99$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…d971backed Blue Otter | 42c | 268.83$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.91 | 670 | 57.5%385 W · 285 L | +24.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Blue Otter | 22c | 260$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 1,156 | 45.1%521 W · 635 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…91a0backed Conviction | 78c | 225$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Blue Otter | 35c | 220.58$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 1,310 | 37.3%489 W · 821 L | -86.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Conviction | 76c | 205.12$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…3326backed Conviction | 78c | 193.27$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce51…1ddbbacked Conviction | 59c | 177.97$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 126 | 57.9%73 W · 53 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Blue Otter | 22c | 168$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 1,671 | 57.9%968 W · 703 L | +70.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbafa…02e0backed Conviction | 65c | 149.23$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 801 | 50.7%406 W · 395 L | +48.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x109b…935fbacked Conviction | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 282 | 61%172 W · 110 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed Conviction | 78c | 113.12$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Conviction | 80c | 108$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 117 | 70.1%82 W · 35 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Conviction | 67c | 100.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 486 | 52.1%253 W · 233 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Blue Otter | 29c | 89.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked Blue Otter | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Blue Otter | 23c | 73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 268 | 56.7%152 W · 116 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x337e…9b4ebacked Conviction | 75c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 325 | 54.8%178 W · 147 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Blue Otter | 17c | 68.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed Conviction | 69c | 64.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 505 | 49.3%249 W · 256 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Blue Otter | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 450 | 44.7%201 W · 249 L | -29.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x632f…4fcbbacked Blue Otter | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…1bfebacked Conviction | 67c | 53.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 251 | 65.7%165 W · 86 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Blue Otter | 25c | 46.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1,576 | 48.4%763 W · 813 L | +17.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…b387backed Blue Otter | 25c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 647 | 49.5%320 W · 327 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…fbfabacked Conviction | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 514 | 54.5%280 W · 234 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Conviction | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 744 | 62.2%463 W · 281 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…fa45backed Conviction | 61c | 29.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Conviction | 60c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 1,922 | 42.2%811 W · 1,111 L | -45.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Conviction | 71c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 190 | 41.1%78 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd479…1920backed Conviction | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 202 | 69.3%140 W · 62 L | +16.0wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…2e9abacked Conviction | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 381 | 54.3%207 W · 174 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…66d1backed Conviction | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 164 | 62.8%103 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…cf1abacked Conviction | 75c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef8…d6debacked Conviction | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…71e0backed Conviction | 78c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Blue Otter (+1.5)Blue Otter won
- LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular SeasonConviction won
- LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter - Game 2 WinnerBlue Otter won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.