Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd698ad0cf7a90cb5fc897a44a0563174b317d338c98967d006befe3d1b27bf11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 19c | 1,732$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.19 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 25c | 1,442$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.62 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 728.24$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 77c | 500$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 414.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 353.77$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 288.62$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 14c | 255.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 76c | 238.19$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 78c | 200.01$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 28c | 180.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 174.3$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 171$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 165$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 26c | 151$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 146.21$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 21c | 142$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 141.33$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 139$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 135.15$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 73c | 117.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 27c | 113$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 111.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 93.53$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 28c | 89.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 78.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 76c | 70.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 69.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 73c | 68.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 29c | 68.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 67.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 66.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 65.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 60.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 80c | 56.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 62c | 54.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 33c | 54.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 73c | 54.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 29c | 51.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ad…5f89backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 77c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 67c | 44.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 80c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 79c | 37.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 28c | 36.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 32.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 74c | 31.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 75c | 26.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 25.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 75c | 24.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 69c | 15.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C or higher on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.