Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad96f291020d9c39d5ecb66b040213f4db0700f33196b691801fc5721614bce0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 456.43$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 305.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 4c | 263.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 222.51$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 221.64$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.1 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 167.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.53 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 165$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 40c | 164$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 70c | 148.32$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 141.39$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 135.49$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 48c | 128.84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 42c | 127.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.41 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 121.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 53c | 113.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 40c | 102.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.11 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 98.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 39c | 98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 26c | 91.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 40c | 86.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 85.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 59c | 83.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 78.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 75.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 30c | 73.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 67.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 65c | 67.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 45c | 67.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 62c | 60.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 38c | 54.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 66c | 53.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 52.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 25c | 50.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 73c | 49.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 75c | 49.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 45.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 80c | 43.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19d2…0868backed Yes | 37c | 41.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 30c | 41.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 35c | 38.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 68c | 36.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 35.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…22c8backed Yes | 37c | 35.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 67c | 34.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…cae8backed Yes | 35c | 33.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 33.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 69c | 29.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 62c | 26.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 62c | 25.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 24.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdf…8116backed No | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 45c | 23.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 63c | 22.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 73c | 21.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 73c | 15.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C or higher on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.