Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6b2e5a4a50873fd169f0b71c6954185c2ab1d995c231645fe160dfd6b5eeedf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 0c | 12,725$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 19c | 643.04$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.33 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 77c | 281$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 223.06$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 19c | 178.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 161.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 21c | 109.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 105.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 103.52$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 101.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 85.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked Yes | 25c | 85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec6…4472backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 65.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 77c | 63.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 23c | 63.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 22c | 63.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 45.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.