Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dc52998f633c6d82cd79ab6150a5bf05fa0e246a11afe71febd960dac433e7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 3c | 1,372$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 32c | 880.6$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.04 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 26c | 543.33$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.2 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 43c | 295.04$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.8 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 198$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 188.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 74c | 185$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.9 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 14c | 168.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 72c | 163.32$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 162.75$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.91 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 150$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 76c | 138.43$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 127.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 26c | 116.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 112.27$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.08 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 103.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 32c | 102.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.32 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 18c | 98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 66c | 94.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 74c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 82.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 81.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 74.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 25c | 74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 64c | 70.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 72c | 68.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 26c | 68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 46c | 66.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 27c | 65.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec6…4472backed No | 78c | 64.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 24c | 60.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 37c | 60.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 59.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 62c | 55.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 70c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…03cabacked No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 51.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 65c | 48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 75c | 46.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 45.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 63c | 42.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 65c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 46c | 38.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 65c | 38.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…45f7backed Yes | 72c | 37.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 53c | 34.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 57c | 31.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 46c | 30.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 28.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 55c | 28.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 71c | 27.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 24.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 23.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 23.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f2…ef25backed No | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf72…2a2cbacked No | 64c | 19.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 63c | 19.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 19.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 63c | 19.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 17.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 67c | 17.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 62c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 15.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.