Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe51c4d542c630d4020144013fa11fa19cba16e955707c252617954009bb3a04c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 32c | 691.39$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.41 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 403.95$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 63c | 309.82$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.95 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 221$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 37c | 199.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 190$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed No | 70c | 174$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 140$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 32c | 137.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 116.66$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 116.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 82.08$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 69c | 72.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 32c | 71.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…79a1backed No | 69c | 70.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 70.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 65.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7f…8282backed No | 70c | 63.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed No | 67c | 60.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 57.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 33c | 55.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked Yes | 37c | 54.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 62c | 45.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 34c | 44.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 57c | 30.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 28.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 72c | 27.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 27.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 66c | 26.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 24.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 23.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05c…d8fcbacked No | 68c | 20.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 68c | 19.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed No | 70c | 18.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.