CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6ded88e6b121bd515b666afdff59ee02d7a94a9a94770b336ae346fedc01764
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ASTRALof ARCRED, ASTRAL
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe44f…fff1backed ARCRED | 1c | 7,839$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed ASTRAL | 50c | 892.57$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.81 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed ASTRAL | 24c | 852.72$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.85 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked ARCRED | 54c | 844.85$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.64 | 1,011 | 52.3%529 W · 482 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed ARCRED | 65c | 809.16$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.99 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed ASTRAL | 33c | 447.57$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.28 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ASTRAL | 64c | 435.75$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.9 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked ARCRED | 61c | 407.25$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.75 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed ARCRED | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 184 | 32.6%60 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked ASTRAL | 36c | 372.75$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.78 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked ARCRED | 66c | 347.6$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.43 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…cd7ebacked ARCRED | 55c | 280$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked ASTRAL | 39c | 276.75$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.17 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed ARCRED | 9c | 256.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 579 | 35.1%203 W · 376 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed ARCRED | 56c | 239.98$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.93 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94f5…1d29backed ARCRED | 20c | 230.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebc…a33dbacked ASTRAL | 43c | 208.85$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.01 | 631 | 57.1%360 W · 271 L | +40.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed ASTRAL | 34c | 201.6$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.58 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…86c8backed ARCRED | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…f22abacked ARCRED | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 217 | 41%89 W · 128 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed ARCRED | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca2…088ebacked ARCRED | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed ARCRED | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 427 | 57.8%247 W · 180 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked ARCRED | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 166 | 49.4%82 W · 84 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ASTRAL | 40c | 161.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed ARCRED | 63c | 154.32$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 139 | 37.4%52 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed ARCRED | 61c | 145.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.94 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked ASTRAL | 44c | 136.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.84 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed ASTRAL | 39c | 124$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xddbd…bcb5backed ASTRAL | 17c | 117.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.24 | 167 | 20.4%34 W · 133 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f76…3c44backed ASTRAL | 39c | 102.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked ARCRED | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 100 | 29%29 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked ARCRED | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 79 | 20.3%16 W · 63 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed ARCRED | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 373 | 39.7%148 W · 225 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…7585backed ARCRED | 61c | 95.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 773 | 51.2%396 W · 377 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed ASTRAL | 50c | 95.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 172 | 36%62 W · 110 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed ARCRED | 34c | 86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 414 | 36.7%152 W · 262 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed ARCRED | 35c | 86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 452 | 40.3%182 W · 270 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed ARCRED | 27c | 79.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 700 | 42.3%296 W · 404 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked ASTRAL | 36c | 67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed ASTRAL | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 500 | 51.4%257 W · 243 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed ARCRED | 57c | 59.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed ASTRAL | 61c | 58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed ASTRAL | 40c | 50.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf868…3b45backed ASTRAL | 50c | 50.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed ASTRAL | 78c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked ARCRED | 60c | 41.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…b4cbbacked ASTRAL | 62c | 40.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126c…0816backed ASTRAL | 40c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked ASTRAL | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed ASTRAL | 40c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed ARCRED | 63c | 27.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed ASTRAL | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked ARCRED | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 341 | 47.5%162 W · 179 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked ASTRAL | 47c | 23.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f57…27e4backed ARCRED | 60c | 19.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group StageARCRED won
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL - Map 2 WinnerARCRED won
- Map Handicap: ARC (-1.5) vs ASTRAL (+1.5)ASTRAL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.