NHL · resolved market
KHL: Metallurg Magnitogorsk vs. Sibir Novosibirsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6e9873226bb07cdbd7ede290845f26a87b09c86eb3cfd2e60d4af2210d8afac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Metallurg Magnitogorskof Metallurg Magnitogorsk, Sibir Novosibirsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,035 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 27c | 4,474$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.5 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 15c | 4,124$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.76 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 74c | 1,443$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.18 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 74c | 1,161$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.15 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…36fabacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 903.44$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 27c | 883.25$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.44 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 75c | 641.39$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.67 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb775…36f5backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 73c | 449.13$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.43 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54df…d2a1backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 73c | 295.64$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 80c | 281$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 73c | 260$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 72c | 165.42$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 74c | 149.96$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 73c | 136.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10bf…313abacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 75c | 136.59$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf938…1249backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 74c | 128.38$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dca…72a5backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 12c | 124.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 24c | 118.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…2effbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 26c | 103.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 73c | 82.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…98bcbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9635…ae57backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 73c | 60.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 27c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d3…7c23backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 26c | 57.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52b…a76fbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 72c | 17.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…5403backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 72c | 14.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.