TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$229,252
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$196,613

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,252 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xda6b…a403backed Yes4c117,076$4,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,161.84620%0 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes4c13,753$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.271466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1ab…2e0fbacked Yes12c11,710$1,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,405.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes3c5,154$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.982922.1%6 W · 286 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes6c4,397$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.731031.9%2 W · 101 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde44…c512backed Yes3c4,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf31a…bfbabacked Yes3c3,680$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.692626.9%7 W · 19 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick10cpaid+100.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe893…4e83backed Yes2c3,298$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.17150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2663…87d7backed Yes5c2,534$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.51140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c2,323$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.234163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes7c2,134$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8f…70eabacked Yes13c2,070$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85ef…3116backed Yes3c2,002$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.06306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dac…c248backed Yes2c1,800$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,527$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.336785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa302…74e8backed Yes6c1,400$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8560%3 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.41per pick19cpaid+456.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes4c1,252$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.08140%0 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes7c1,234$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.531523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c1,041$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.292417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes4c1,004$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.393998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes5c1,002$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.161499.4%14 W · 135 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c8e…4e45backed Yes7c1,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes4c909.69$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.572581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes4c865.92$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.162683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes3c819$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.691717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-49.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c6…927bbacked Yes3c717.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.951672.4%4 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed Yes3c705.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.451792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes3c658.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.811373.6%5 W · 132 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fdf…2c2bbacked Yes4c650$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes2c586.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.46180%0 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes14c492.3$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.925514.5%8 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ed…cb67backed Yes7c480.11$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.28742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick11cpaid+296.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes2c479.71$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.28985.1%5 W · 93 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes6c400$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.21422.1%3 W · 139 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd63e…4cb8backed Yes15c330.03$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes4c298.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.628919.1%17 W · 72 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c287$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.931,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes5c275.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.251546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+55.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbec0…68c7backed Yes10c249.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7760%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e55…760dbacked Yes10c246.75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.882429.2%7 W · 17 L+4.8wins+0.20per pick9cpaid+125.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe95d…ca9fbacked Yes7c220.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes16c200$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+25.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes7c187.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3416537.6%62 W · 103 L-21.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-38.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x570e…52f1backed Yes6c172.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf274…37f4backed Yes8c171.42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.435612.5%7 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+48.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No79c112.28$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.913948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef8c…3b9cbacked Yes14c73.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e95…2bbcbacked No79c45.64$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.641060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6565…2c02backed Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5b67…481abacked Yes29c38.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf56a…e0e7backed No79c36.43$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb26d…20d4backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.