Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique de Marseille vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd70fadcb5ee5bb6e8173922b0fe8dda60ca813409c7442375a00bc24351ca2dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 14c | 1,972$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.02 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 428.36$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.76 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 9c | 378.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 20c | 162.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850c…5f62backed Under | 79c | 131.9$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…54c2backed Over | 22c | 108.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 12c | 108.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 18c | 84.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 78c | 71.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c0…f0c5backed Over | 18c | 71.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 20c | 60.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 79c | 19.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique de Marseille vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: OGC Nice (-1.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)OGC Nice won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-2.5)OGC Nice won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.