MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd71101824b595b274ac98b484c50cc8a8223dbf8cbc4762b9d7d4ea98075c14e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 60c | 6,305$3,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,524.72 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 40c | 3,955$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.76 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 59c | 3,555$2,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457.88 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5102…7b08backed Yes | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 61c | 1,639$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.34 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 42c | 1,595$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.64 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 41c | 1,169$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.49 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 43c | 986.53$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.82 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed No | 58c | 911.88$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.5 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d5…51cbbacked Yes | 42c | 808.5$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 57c | 789.47$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.47 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 41c | 665.66$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.01 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 57c | 263$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…63bfbacked No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 193 | 58%112 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 59c | 161.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 55c | 134.91$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 39c | 111.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…26e3backed No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbb…c7fbbacked No | 57c | 32.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigersthis page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 15.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-6.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.