MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7397f99dc956e05402fd35c423fc7930ab1937b4d182348a4b3477a2eb8f9808
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $254,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $255,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 50c | 201,633$100,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101,602.69 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 50c | 155,214$77,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77,606.97 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 46,985$23,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,962.3 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Over | 50c | 27,583$13,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,791.73 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 51c | 20,400$10,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,404 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 9,732$4,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,510.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 51c | 8,581$4,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,376.31 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 52c | 8,422$4,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,026.34 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 3,351$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,558.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 49c | 1,858$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.54 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 72c | 1,409$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 50c | 1,024$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 753.12$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.09 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 39c | 700$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 39c | 694.57$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.41 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 61c | 656.56$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.5 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 50c | 492.14$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.22 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 49c | 476.38$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.95 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 51c | 431.37$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 51c | 390$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 35c | 367$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.45 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 50c | 315$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Under | 51c | 313.17$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.72 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 305$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.15 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 294.54$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Over | 50c | 201.62$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.81 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 64c | 199.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 51c | 199$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.51 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 52c | 192$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 51c | 176.46$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 35c | 153.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 130.58$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 51c | 130$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 51c | 124.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 67c | 117.07$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Over | 76c | 115.07$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 70 | 80%56 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 394 | 40.9%161 W · 233 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 57c | 87.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94eb…fcdfbacked Under | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 81.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…2b2cbacked Under | 52c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 71c | 69.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 50c | 64.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed Over | 48c | 63.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2458…bd24backed Under | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Over | 50c | 59.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Under | 51c | 58.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 48c | 57.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 62c | 56.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 67c | 55.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 51c | 45.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 59c | 43.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 60c | 40.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe602…9446backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 48cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd934…ab75backed Under | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 55c | 34.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 51c | 32.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Under | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…e580backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46ae…b9d9backed Over | 50c | 29.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 40c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 50c | 25.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 73c | 24.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 73c | 24.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f2…3a32backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed Under | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -8.9wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Under | 65c | 22.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 15.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-6.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.