MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb327dbf9a66124fc6fdb5859bf681ce49fe99acad6bc4866b7c8aa9e69a0bf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Detroit Tigers | 45c | 34,234$15,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,405.39 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 17,727$9,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,978.28 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 6,074$3,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,733.19 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Detroit Tigers | 29c | 5,099$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.19 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 4,762$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,082.85 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 4,749$2,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,068.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers | 66c | 4,001$2,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Detroit Tigers | 44c | 3,851$1,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,690.17 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 2,721$1,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.69 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 2,400$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.83 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 2,276$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.29 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Detroit Tigers | 43c | 2,092$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.56 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 1,968$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.6 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 1,780$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Detroit Tigers | 44c | 1,664$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.55 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 1,543$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.88 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 1,365$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.25 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Detroit Tigers | 44c | 1,024$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.78 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Detroit Tigers | 44c | 1,023$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.78 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 991.67$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.34 | 338 | 52.7%178 W · 160 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 822.98$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.86 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Detroit Tigers | 55c | 699.99$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.99 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 558.38$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.31 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Detroit Tigers | 44c | 429.53$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.04 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 397.4$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.88 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 390.74$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.84 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 379.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.26 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Detroit Tigers | 45c | 367.88$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.96 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…cd5fbacked Detroit Tigers | 43c | 315.4$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.62 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 294$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 266.3$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.33 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 265.93$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.69 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 252$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 243.04$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.71 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…f595backed Detroit Tigers | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Detroit Tigers | 45c | 186.44$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.54 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 185$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 175.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.42 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 175.27$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.42 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 158.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.3 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 133.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Detroit Tigers | 44c | 130$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 102.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 101.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.42 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b5…a1f2backed Detroit Tigers | 47c | 98.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Detroit Tigers | 43c | 97.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 93.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 92.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 92.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 64.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Detroit Tigers | 42c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 54.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…832ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca6…9da8backed Detroit Tigers | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Detroit Tigers | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Detroit Tigers | 44c | 44.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…b6ffbacked Detroit Tigers | 68c | 44.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +9.4wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 35.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Detroit Tigers | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 28.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Detroit Tigers | 44c | 28.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Detroit Tigers | 46c | 25.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 22.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 21.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…1e57backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Detroit Tigers | 57c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Detroit Tigers | 80c | 14.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 15.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-6.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.