NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd715184f4a7e8ebd219727c3d0cbc7b0c2b7fe78e534231caf7245caa25d1562
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,165 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 73c | 8,556$6,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,310.01 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Over | 27c | 6,800$1,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,836 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Over | 27c | 5,440$1,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.8 | 186 | 41.9%78 W · 108 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 73c | 1,901$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.19 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 76c | 1,095$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.55 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 64 | 14.1%9 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa7…295fbacked Over | 28c | 245$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6915…2354backed Under | 72c | 210$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe745…eafebacked Under | 72c | 195$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +136.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Under | 75c | 192.08$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 76 | 71.1%54 W · 22 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8316…e206backed Over | 28c | 184$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2068…9f2ebacked Under | 72c | 176$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd7…fe1dbacked Over | 28c | 174$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55cd…9ffabacked Under | 72c | 170$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1267…35d1backed Over | 28c | 164$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 35c | 162.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f0…4938backed Under | 72c | 160$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Over | 29c | 133.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…1498backed Under | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…b806backed Over | 28c | 104$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…fc30backed Over | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b42…38a2backed Over | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7583…0469backed Over | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 22c | 71.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Over | 25c | 70.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 71c | 64.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…38cbbacked Over | 27c | 59.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 22c | 54.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Under | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…4596backed Under | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 73c | 28.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5this page
- Flyers vs. DucksFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.