NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b15e245b4dde46571aae21154b8f9693143605c1fb56c25585d34ea88e85689
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,435 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over | 47c | 84,516$39,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,722.57 | 403 | 51.9%209 W · 194 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 53c | 75,500$40,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,484.99 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 12,778$6,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,042.46 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 52c | 5,304$2,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,546 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…2ce9backed Over | 48c | 5,209$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500.32 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 4,907$2,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,311.44 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Over | 48c | 3,124$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 315 | 50.8%160 W · 155 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Under | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 54c | 2,408$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.28 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 47c | 2,404$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.09 | 397 | 52.1%207 W · 190 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…c503backed Under | 53c | 2,345$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.28 | 137 | 49.6%68 W · 69 L | +7.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 52c | 2,084$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.06 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1064…f153backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 785.55$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.06 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc339…ba5bbacked Over | 48c | 677.08$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 49c | 571.43$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd708…b9d2backed Over | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Over | 57c | 381.38$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 24c | 368.57$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.92 | 64 | 14.1%9 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 55c | 347.8$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.31 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 49c | 326.43$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.23 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 47c | 297.87$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 42c | 295.39$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.72 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Over | 48c | 271.47$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 230.6$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.44 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 53c | 188.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…1be7backed Under | 53c | 153.43$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Under | 52c | 149$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 41c | 129.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 47c | 127.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 58c | 120.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 31c | 111.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 58c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 53c | 106.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 477 | 53.9%257 W · 220 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 52c | 97.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x461b…30ddbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…0da9backed Over | 49c | 88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 52c | 87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…6592backed Over | 48c | 87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 47c | 86.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 52c | 85.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…90a8backed Over | 48c | 78.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Over | 29c | 78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +18.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 53c | 72.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Over | 49c | 69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 74c | 67.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 47c | 63.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…4389backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 119 | 57.1%68 W · 51 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked Over | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 49c | 44.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…ec56backed Over | 47c | 42.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9683…108bbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 27c | 39.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b1…4814backed Over | 47c | 38.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 52c | 37.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Under | 48c | 37.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bc…cac9backed Over | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 60c | 30.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc516…7f3abacked Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1a…d0f9backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Over | 47c | 25.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a6…6e3fbacked Over | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5this page
- Flyers vs. DucksFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.