NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4997f6be4444520a8adf75b18c0d1082504ac4dfa27912030a17ef2bf6e5df71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,410 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5cf…c503backed Under | 22c | 2,326$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.11 | 137 | 49.6%68 W · 69 L | +7.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 78c | 1,364$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.08 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Over | 79c | 955.7$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.7 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 62c | 871.59$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.13 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 69c | 380.64$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.33 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 38c | 282.59$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf9…be26backed Under | 41c | 271.68$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 38c | 262.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.92 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 39c | 241$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 65c | 162.62$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 19c | 143.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 29c | 134.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 66c | 119.85$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 50c | 98.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.43 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 18c | 86.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Over | 72c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +18.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac1…3afebacked Under | 55c | 72.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Under | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 53c | 68.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 64c | 61.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 59.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 68c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 78c | 54.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 59c | 50.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 66c | 42.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Under | 41c | 41.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 61c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 64c | 35.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 48c | 34.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Over | 56c | 27.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Under | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 72c | 20.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 71c | 18.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Over | 79c | 14.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5this page
- Flyers vs. DucksFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.