NHL · resolved market
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xceedee0b60d2a5c7535b8d21866024aeb05c14690d001deddeab24aff77fbf88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flyersof Ducks, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,780 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeeb0…c9f8backed Ducks | 36c | 717.47$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.29 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Flyers | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Flyers | 63c | 467.85$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.1 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Flyers | 63c | 388.33$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.33 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Ducks | 37c | 380$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.6 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Ducks | 35c | 349.85$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Flyers | 78c | 320.54$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…9ae9backed Ducks | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Ducks | 37c | 190$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…1805backed Flyers | 64c | 185.47$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…4897backed Flyers | 64c | 184.19$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ce…dd2ebacked Flyers | 64c | 181.14$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.21 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadf6…4eaabacked Flyers | 64c | 168.35$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Ducks | 12c | 160.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Ducks | 35c | 154$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Ducks | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Ducks | 37c | 125$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Flyers | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…8b3dbacked Ducks | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Flyers | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Ducks | 35c | 103.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Ducks | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Ducks | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Ducks | 35c | 99.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Flyers | 66c | 97.62$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Ducks | 22c | 97.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Ducks | 37c | 95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Ducks | 37c | 95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 140 | 37.9%53 W · 87 L | -13.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Ducks | 16c | 82.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Flyers | 65c | 78.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Flyers | 63c | 74.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Ducks | 35c | 73.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Flyers | 65c | 72.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Flyers | 64c | 67.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Flyers | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked Flyers | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Ducks | 35c | 53.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Flyers | 63c | 41.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Ducks | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Ducks | 35c | 36.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Flyers | 78c | 35.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Ducks | 35c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Flyers | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Flyers | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Ducks | 33c | 30.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Ducks | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Flyers | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)this page
- Flyers vs. DucksFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.