Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd715b6794af5571768b47bd738681516d16302c35d6b26bcb66a08cd906ee0f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 38c | 980.02$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.92 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 317.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed No | 60c | 290.66$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.3 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 287.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 4c | 282.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 57c | 253.28$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.37 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 250.98$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.93 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 61c | 205.32$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.14 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 38c | 197.55$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.14 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked No | 43c | 193.62$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 186.3$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 59c | 177.16$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.66 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 175.4$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…eb78backed No | 58c | 172.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed No | 14c | 164.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 62c | 150$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 44c | 138.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 60c | 133.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 130.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 40c | 126.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 117.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 114.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 41c | 107.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 100.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 98.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 51c | 90.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 16c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 74.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 60c | 74.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 56c | 72.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 71.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 40c | 68.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 54.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x701d…d115backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 24c | 49.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 63c | 48.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 52c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 48c | 41.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 50c | 40.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…91dabacked Yes | 41c | 36.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 35c | 35.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 33.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 55c | 32.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 41c | 28.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 39c | 28.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 59c | 26.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 55c | 23.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…ee31backed Yes | 48c | 22.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 59c | 22.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 22.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 22.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…f3a4backed No | 70c | 20.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…c0fabacked Yes | 55c | 19.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3189…562dbacked Yes | 71c | 18.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 56c | 17.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 60c | 17.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 16.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dba…3de8backed Yes | 80c | 15.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 74c | 14.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.