Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd734e83a09dd811f6a0ad2dd3ffdbd8656052e9d77d52d8de3625b3c232207e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 33c | 1,394$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.69 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 20c | 1,352$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.53 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 1,169$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ff…0d46backed Yes | 8c | 1,122$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.79 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 22c | 678.61$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.68 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 21c | 657.13$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 25c | 603.23$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.06 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 535.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed No | 74c | 450$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 22c | 415$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 372.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 20c | 372$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 17c | 359.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f2…c000backed Yes | 12c | 329.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 33c | 329.16$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff3…b0d1backed No | 75c | 324.24$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…f45ebacked Yes | 23c | 318.15$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.74 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed No | 77c | 299.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 20c | 289.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 21c | 285.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 79c | 276.18$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 269.02$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.91 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 261.2$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 76c | 252.29$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 22c | 242.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 35c | 240$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 74c | 216.72$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 196.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 18c | 195.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…2c19backed Yes | 16c | 190$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 54c | 186.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 172$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 19c | 161.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 21c | 150.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed Yes | 47c | 146.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 19c | 140$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked No | 77c | 134.73$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 133.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 21c | 128.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 17c | 123.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12a…e611backed No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 115.78$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…8f80backed No | 77c | 103.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 73c | 99.1$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 25c | 94.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 14c | 94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 22c | 90.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 16c | 87.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe610…7ce9backed Yes | 13c | 85.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…1d51backed Yes | 23c | 84.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b16…29e2backed Yes | 33c | 84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…739abacked Yes | 19c | 78.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…9ec4backed No | 76c | 75.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c321backed Yes | 24c | 73.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 69.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 76c | 68.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 25c | 68.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 18c | 66.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 45c | 66.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 23c | 66.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa61…97dabacked Yes | 25c | 61.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 21c | 60.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7637…92d3backed Yes | 20c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf569…3063backed Yes | 32c | 52.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 21c | 51.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 51.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 39c | 50.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dae…a0b1backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 22c | 45.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf517…a30cbacked No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 70c | 42.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 29c | 40.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 33.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 31.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 70c | 28.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 27.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 74c | 25.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 76c | 24.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7498…8b4dbacked No | 74c | 20.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f40…2cfabacked Yes | 53c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d6…b907backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.