Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7d33d2e69584373c24b5fcfb41be983263a4f8afb935ee83ec21f21503a0703
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 73c | 1,465$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.89 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 42c | 1,378$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.52 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 1,169$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 48c | 1,054$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.48 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 52c | 1,015$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.62 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98c…7e81backed No | 67c | 741.41$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 57c | 727.8$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.69 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 50c | 660.9$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.98 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 647.26$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 56c | 619.7$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.86 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 36c | 555.89$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.89 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 60c | 551.56$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.54 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed No | 55c | 499.91$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 474.19$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 68c | 471.99$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.8 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f2…c000backed Yes | 34c | 441.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.76 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…6025backed Yes | 43c | 422.43$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.43 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8a…6cf4backed No | 62c | 421.11$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 421.05$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff3…b0d1backed No | 62c | 405.4$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 40c | 400$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.05 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 39c | 350.09$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.31 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 334.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 321.42$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 73c | 304.04$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b84…6e9bbacked Yes | 72c | 291.96$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 29c | 270.54$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.16 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 261.2$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 60c | 258.83$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.62 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 74c | 251.94$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 6c | 250$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed No | 14c | 228.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 37c | 216.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.35 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 23c | 212.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 10c | 205.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 56c | 193.91$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.58 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 60c | 182$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 14c | 177$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 38c | 170.71$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.05 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…2c19backed Yes | 48c | 169.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked No | 14c | 168.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 168.09$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked No | 31c | 164.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 161.35$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 155.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 77c | 151.04$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee1…3603backed Yes | 33c | 150$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed No | 19c | 146.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed Yes | 79c | 144.65$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +6.7wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1b16…29e2backed Yes | 37c | 143.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 136.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed No | 68c | 131.52$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 128.68$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 62c | 126.59$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 48c | 123.25$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 122$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 61c | 120$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 117.33$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 38c | 112.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 27c | 111$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe19…1199backed No | 47c | 107.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 40c | 106.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…f6edbacked Yes | 39c | 105$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…c7a8backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 27c | 98.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed No | 59c | 96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 38c | 91.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…3ac9backed Yes | 77c | 91.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 62c | 91.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ec…3a46backed No | 12c | 90.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 12c | 88.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 80.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa210…a235backed No | 26c | 79.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…66bfbacked Yes | 53c | 74.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…40b7backed Yes | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 17c | 66.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…9188backed Yes | 57c | 62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 61c | 61.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 59.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 61c | 58.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 23c | 57.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 36c | 57.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 62c | 57.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 24c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8d…5ed9backed Yes | 54c | 54.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 45c | 53.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.