Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc975f07750d856f70599ded0f37d9dd925fa242d31d692db99ce4d547773812
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed Yes | 29c | 1,118$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.7 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 77c | 901.23$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.51 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 825.18$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.96 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 16c | 750.07$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.79 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 14c | 711.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 19c | 624.83$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.65 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 24c | 547.91$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.26 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 22c | 400$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 369.28$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 30c | 350.07$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.33 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 71c | 321.76$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 27c | 320$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 299.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 27c | 268$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f2…c000backed Yes | 32c | 241.32$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 240.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 229.68$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 211$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 36c | 210.03$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 19c | 199.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…9ec4backed Yes | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 28c | 180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 16c | 178.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 20c | 168.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 168.09$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 37c | 163.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 156.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 150.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee1…3603backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 15c | 149.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 119.55$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 16c | 117.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 24c | 115.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 11c | 111.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 32c | 105.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 13c | 104.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…d340backed Yes | 30c | 103.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…9469backed No | 76c | 86.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 19c | 78.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 76.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 27c | 73.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 71.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 23c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb55…f341backed No | 69c | 65.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 63.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…8226backed Yes | 32c | 62.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 61.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 50.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 78c | 50.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa3…d52fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…2c19backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 28c | 46.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 43.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 27c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 37c | 40.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…be0dbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 64cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 39.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 35.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 35.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 69c | 34.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 32.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 31.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 31.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe610…7ce9backed Yes | 36c | 30.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 28.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked No | 74c | 27.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 76c | 27.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 25.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 25.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 23.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…ce9fbacked No | 69c | 21.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 20.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…46e2backed No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 70c | 18.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x132f…275dbacked No | 72c | 14.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.