NHL · resolved market

Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd74b2c6833bf7e05dc1b967430047576ea0ce7c0599be8ee04630f0f58717f69

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Jetsof Red Wings, Jets
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $20,196
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $19,733

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,196 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NHL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc17f…50aabacked Red Wings	30c	7,128$2,138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,138.21	163	46%75 W · 88 L	-9.9wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Red Wings	2c	4,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	217	4.1%9 W · 208 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+36.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Red Wings	5c	3,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	294	12.9%38 W · 256 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+45.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Jets	70c	3,000$2,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$900	286	52.4%150 W · 136 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8307…ad90backed Red Wings	3c	1,400$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	37	5.4%2 W · 35 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4651…8da8backed Red Wings	1c	1,164$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-2.5wins	-0.14per pick	30cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2885…486cbacked Red Wings	32c	1,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Jets	68c	962.16$654 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$307.89	881	51.2%451 W · 430 L	+10.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jets	70c	857$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.1	1,230	53.7%661 W · 569 L	-9.1wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Red Wings	28c	700$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196	533	37.5%200 W · 333 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Jets	70c	600$420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180	222	48.2%107 W · 115 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Red Wings	27c	446.63$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.59	1,441	49.2%709 W · 732 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Jets	73c	434$317 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.18	1,948	49.4%962 W · 986 L	+24.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Jets	70c	407.5$283 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.02	1,679	54.4%914 W · 765 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Jets	70c	246.96$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	1,143	50.8%581 W · 562 L	+11.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Jets	70c	240$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72	376	49.7%187 W · 189 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Jets	70c	120$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	792	51.1%405 W · 387 L	+21.7wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Red Wings	36c	100$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	541	32.7%177 W · 364 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Jets	64c	97$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.92	1,024	48.4%496 W · 528 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Jets	70c	90$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	481	49.3%237 W · 244 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Jets	70c	90$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	472	49.2%232 W · 240 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Red Wings	28c	81$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.65	2,754	47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L	+11.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Jets	70c	72$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.6	263	48.7%128 W · 135 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Jets	70c	72$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.6	271	48.7%132 W · 139 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64a3…cc70backed Red Wings	28c	67$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.76	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-3.1wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Jets	70c	60$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	295	50.2%148 W · 147 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Jets	73c	54.12$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.88	1,530	51.7%791 W · 739 L	+22.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Jets	70c	54$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.2	264	48.9%129 W · 135 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed3f…0ab8backed Jets	70c	54$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.2	54	53.7%29 W · 25 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Jets	70c	54$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.2	605	49.3%298 W · 307 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec8c…666abacked Red Wings	35c	50.84$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.79	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa65b…b0c0backed Jets	71c	50$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.5	59	55.9%33 W · 26 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Red Wings	32c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	432	50.9%220 W · 212 L	+5.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Jets	70c	45$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	216	48.1%104 W · 112 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1436…e23dbacked Jets	71c	43$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.47	61	50.8%31 W · 30 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Red Wings	29c	42.67$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	352	48%169 W · 183 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Jets	70c	36$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	196	45.4%89 W · 107 L	-8.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Jets	70c	36$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	204	47.5%97 W · 107 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Jets	70c	36$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	105	43.8%46 W · 59 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Jets	70c	36$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	112	47.3%53 W · 59 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Jets	70c	36$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	291	47.4%138 W · 153 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Jets	70c	36$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	130	46.2%60 W · 70 L	-7.0wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Jets	70c	36$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	198	48.5%96 W · 102 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Jets	70c	36$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	194	42.8%83 W · 111 L	-12.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Jets	70c	36$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	196	47.4%93 W · 103 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Jets	70c	36$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	189	46%87 W · 102 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Jets	70c	36$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	197	45.2%89 W · 108 L	-9.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Jets	70c	36$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	190	46.8%89 W · 101 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Jets	70c	36$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	200	45.5%91 W · 109 L	-7.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Jets	72c	27.06$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.49	939	53.6%503 W · 436 L	+29.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9014…db4abacked Jets	69c	25$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.76	160	48.1%77 W · 83 L	-6.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90f9…e894backed Jets	69c	25$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.76	156	47.4%74 W · 82 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Jets	70c	24$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	147	46.9%69 W · 78 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Jets	70c	21$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.3	126	52.4%66 W · 60 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Jets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	93	52.7%49 W · 44 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Jets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	95	48.4%46 W · 49 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Jets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	231	44.6%103 W · 128 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Jets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	99	52.5%52 W · 47 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Jets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Jets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	106	52.8%56 W · 50 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Jets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	94	51.1%48 W · 46 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Jets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	95	50.5%48 W · 47 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked Jets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	98	52%51 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Jets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	175	52%91 W · 84 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Jets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	102	50%51 W · 51 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Jets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	99	51.5%51 W · 48 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Jets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	209	42.6%89 W · 120 L	-12.0wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Jets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	75	54.7%41 W · 34 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Jets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	107	52.3%56 W · 51 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Jets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	418	51.4%215 W · 203 L	+14.6wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Jets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	97	50.5%49 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Jets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	105	52.4%55 W · 50 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Jets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	172	49.4%85 W · 87 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Jets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed Jets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	91	52.7%48 W · 43 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Jets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	99	48.5%48 W · 51 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65b5…a9f7backed Jets	69c	16$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.96	131	45.8%60 W · 71 L	-8.5wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5af1…f988backed Jets	69c	16$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.96	133	46.6%62 W · 71 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x778e…ccd1backed Jets	70c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.5	219	51.6%113 W · 106 L	-8.4wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)this page
Jets vs. Red WingsRed Wings won
Jets vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Under won
Jets vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Under won
Spread: Jets (-1.5)Red Wings won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event