MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7579ee0f3587d3bd58962cf95f9b155702e4dbfcb3275310a1ec79ee853ba0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof New York Yankees, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees | 44c | 1,685$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.69 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 55c | 1,514$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.44 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 56c | 1,400$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed New York Yankees | 46c | 1,105$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.68 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Houston Astros | 56c | 1,097$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.74 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed New York Yankees | 44c | 966.4$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.22 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…91fbbacked New York Yankees | 46c | 751.83$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.84 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed New York Yankees | 38c | 714.94$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.49 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Houston Astros | 54c | 677$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.42 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Houston Astros | 62c | 597.55$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.3 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Houston Astros | 55c | 459.99$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.02 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7202…e51abacked Houston Astros | 54c | 406.51$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Houston Astros | 55c | 280.9$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.4 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…7c1dbacked New York Yankees | 44c | 219.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d2…6ea7backed New York Yankees | 45c | 161.17$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.53 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Houston Astros | 56c | 150.09$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New York Yankees | 20c | 146.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Houston Astros | 72c | 117.98$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked New York Yankees | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed New York Yankees | 44c | 98.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…5ba7backed New York Yankees | 45c | 98.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed New York Yankees | 40c | 72.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 71.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27f…cdf5backed New York Yankees | 45c | 64.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…2222backed New York Yankees | 45c | 53.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Yankees | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Houston Astros | 56c | 48.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Houston Astros | 57c | 43.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeded…bfe9backed New York Yankees | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed New York Yankees | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked New York Yankees | 44c | 42.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed New York Yankees | 46c | 42.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed New York Yankees | 44c | 37.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Houston Astros | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros | 55c | 32.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked New York Yankees | 45c | 27.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccea…a8ebbacked Houston Astros | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 55c | 21.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-5.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-6.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.