TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof New York Yankees, Houston Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$456,495
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$531,145

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $456,495 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 257 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked New York Yankees49c78,662$38,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,896.281,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Houston Astros48c77,536$36,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,570.4498149.9%490 W · 491 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked New York Yankees54c57,167$30,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,870.0841149.1%202 W · 209 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Houston Astros45c41,523$18,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,837.9231149.2%153 W · 158 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38f0…2768backed Houston Astros44c19,672$8,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,973.0214943.6%65 W · 84 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed New York Yankees54c12,239$6,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,632.563,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21d4…84bdbacked New York Yankees56c12,179$6,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,820.483956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed New York Yankees56c11,880$6,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,652.611,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros78c10,644$8,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,369.5710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Houston Astros45c10,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,499.9847953.2%255 W · 224 L+18.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde0a…f102backed New York Yankees0c7,546$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.09140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed New York Yankees36c7,469$2,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,721.352,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed New York Yankees57c6,836$3,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,896.837953.6%203 W · 176 L+18.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees22c6,748$1,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.6811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c55…5b2fbacked New York Yankees56c5,818$3,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,258.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked New York Yankees0c5,400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.88762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Houston Astros44c5,003$2,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,801.2237348.3%180 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros45c4,976$2,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,754.535,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked New York Yankees1c4,736$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.161,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x19d0…e11cbacked Houston Astros44c3,951$1,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,212.386845.6%31 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a6…0009backed Houston Astros64c3,538$2,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.596839.7%27 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x78bc…5616backed New York Yankees3c3,400$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1720539.5%81 W · 124 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Houston Astros45c3,385$1,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,861.482,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Houston Astros45c2,901$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,595.551,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Houston Astros67c2,668$1,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.5980159.2%474 W · 327 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked New York Yankees33c2,599$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.261,14142.9%490 W · 651 L-37.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42a6…cb72backed New York Yankees25c2,292$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.81650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed New York Yankees55c2,280$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2545350.9%27 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Houston Astros68c2,230$1,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.371,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Houston Astros44c2,197$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.114252.4%22 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed New York Yankees55c2,123$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.619250%96 W · 96 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3d2…fe85backed Houston Astros45c2,110$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.582365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+29.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Houston Astros46c2,103$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.8826245.8%120 W · 142 L-17.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b3c…d911backed Houston Astros45c2,055$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees55c1,883$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.644,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees20c1,847$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c55…97d4backed New York Yankees55c1,767$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.0313655.1%75 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed New York Yankees55c1,666$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.2173748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees33c1,605$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.328,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6db5…e279backed Houston Astros73c1,484$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.8114152.5%74 W · 67 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb60…137abacked New York Yankees31c1,237$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.449435.1%33 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked New York Yankees47c1,114$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.4648850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros44c1,100$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.496,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Houston Astros45c1,005$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.332,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed New York Yankees56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56012640.5%51 W · 75 L-12.2wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked New York Yankees35c991.46$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.4928952.6%152 W · 137 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Yankees56c969.98$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.192,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Houston Astros73c922.95$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.115,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc0…e57dbacked New York Yankees2c904.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0326315.6%41 W · 222 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-49.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Houston Astros58c819.03$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.135,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed New York Yankees55c781.48$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.815054%27 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0e3e…7d88backed New York Yankees32c749.38$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.82045%9 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x154a…86b0backed New York Yankees13c729.08$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.78742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros52c726.81$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.449,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros71c686.85$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.056,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fe1…9f94backed Houston Astros63c602.64$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.114963.3%31 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed New York Yankees32c599.99$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19555541.4%230 W · 325 L-26.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb020…92f3backed Houston Astros53c599.96$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.381163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed New York Yankees54c592.49$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.3820647.1%97 W · 109 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed New York Yankees53c590.99$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.3510744.9%48 W · 59 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked New York Yankees55c590.57$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.811,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf209…15b9backed Houston Astros55c583.8$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.715455.6%30 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked New York Yankees13c578.3$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1822831.6%72 W · 156 L-0.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed New York Yankees55c560$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30840645.1%183 W · 223 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x782b…ff64backed Houston Astros51c557.75$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.150860.2%306 W · 202 L+29.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked New York Yankees55c530.73$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.994034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc174…b757backed New York Yankees55c530.73$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.92157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Houston Astros44c504.99$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.21,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed New York Yankees55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2752,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2614…4442backed Houston Astros45c491.36$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed Houston Astros49c484.7$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.226857.8%155 W · 113 L+26.3wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+18.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed New York Yankees6c471.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.311,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x982e…add6backed New York Yankees6c454.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2233228.3%94 W · 238 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed New York Yankees56c444.36$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.841,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed New York Yankees55c442.27$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.251,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed New York Yankees56c438.12$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.3522548.4%109 W · 116 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5aa…4464backed New York Yankees55c437.32$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.5328850.3%145 W · 143 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Houston Astros53c419.28$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.591,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Houston Astros65c416.84$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14539640.9%162 W · 234 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-31.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Houston Astros47c409.79$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.191,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked New York Yankees14c400$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5521149.3%104 W · 107 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Houston Astros74c393.48$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.721,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57f3…4fcfbacked New York Yankees55c353.82$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.617954.2%97 W · 82 L-0.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Houston Astros44c340$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.291,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed New York Yankees30c305.2$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9988046.4%408 W · 472 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e9a…1ff9backed New York Yankees3c304.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2560%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed New York Yankees48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14434045%153 W · 187 L+1.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee6…cbfebacked New York Yankees12c300$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710036%36 W · 64 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed New York Yankees54c300$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1621,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3368…4f90backed New York Yankees46c292.97$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.674936.7%18 W · 31 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-25.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa44d…edf1backed Houston Astros51c285.47$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.882055%11 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked New York Yankees30c280.91$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8560941.4%252 W · 357 L-22.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked New York Yankees27c276.98$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7241847.6%199 W · 219 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Houston Astros68c271.89$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.6144744.1%197 W · 250 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xccd0…2222backed New York Yankees55c265.36$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.9511346.9%53 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9320…045abacked New York Yankees13c248.29$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.182842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc510…629abacked New York Yankees55c244.93$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.085754.4%31 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Houston Astros58c237.55$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.7730140.5%122 W · 179 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcda3…36cfbacked Houston Astros44c230$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.11,31043.6%571 W · 739 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked New York Yankees21c216.88$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9633515.5%52 W · 283 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.