Mls · resolved market
Will Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd75844bccf2dae95a0a165bd4d090797e1d64c7461d05144125dd5e232f28a6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe87…6fc0backed No | 72c | 2,781$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,002.37 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 28c | 2,385$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,717.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 27c | 998.44$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.86 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Yes | 26c | 985.61$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.35 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 27c | 894.92$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.29 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 80c | 521.14$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7065…5292backed Yes | 41c | 466.7$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.54 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 403.22$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.64 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 72c | 361.97$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed No | 57c | 339.59$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.89 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 70c | 338.71$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.08 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Yes | 15c | 319.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.92 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 44c | 295.14$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.57 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 52c | 242.62$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 215.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.64 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 55c | 214.32$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.92 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 65c | 206.74$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.38 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 57c | 203.24$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.24 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaf…24f8backed Yes | 11c | 175.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 60c | 174.49$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 33c | 172.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.24 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d7…68dfbacked Yes | 74c | 167.31$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 12c | 161.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.83 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 27c | 133.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 77c | 120.97$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 79c | 112.88$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 28c | 106.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 28c | 102.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.81 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 34c | 99.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 51c | 97.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 66c | 86.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 32c | 80.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.07 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked No | 68c | 73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 33c | 72.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Yes | 29c | 70.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 27c | 63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked No | 71c | 59.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 58c | 58.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 27c | 57.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 21c | 55.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…8263backed Yes | 37c | 52.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 31c | 51.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…1e89backed Yes | 28c | 51.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e41…ca06backed No | 72c | 49.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked No | 21c | 48.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…1ad5backed No | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 29c | 47.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8f22backed Yes | 40c | 46.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 29c | 46.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked No | 41c | 40.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 27c | 39.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Yes | 39c | 37.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 53c | 33.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 49c | 31.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Yes | 65c | 30.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked No | 47c | 30.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed No | 71c | 29.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed No | 73c | 29.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ade…8950backed Yes | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 73c | 19.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw?this page
- Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-04-22?No won
- Will Toronto FC win on 2026-04-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.