TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Padres vs. Nationals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Padresof Padres, Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,314
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,395

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,314 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ce8…4527backed Nationals46c30,194$13,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,889.3344456.5%251 W · 193 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Padres54c27,012$14,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,425.5860451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65e4…a3bdbacked Nationals47c9,383$4,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,410.1710844.4%48 W · 60 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Padres53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,349.9826949.4%133 W · 136 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Padres54c2,914$1,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,346.692,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Padres53c2,500$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,17556451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Padres54c2,446$1,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.3338047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Padres53c2,311$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.3238444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Nationals46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92071751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Nationals47c1,900$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89397950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9700…0e70backed Padres53c1,900$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89314446.5%67 W · 77 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadf0…00fbbacked Nationals45c1,733$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.0749250.4%248 W · 244 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals7c1,625$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.582,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb142…cd11backed Padres55c1,276$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.6918748.1%90 W · 97 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36da…e646backed Nationals10c1,214$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5423545.1%106 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7fb…7d8cbacked Padres55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4504751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nationals17c960.03$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.989,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Nationals46c897$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.621,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x497c…d54ebacked Padres54c799.98$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.9924248.8%118 W · 124 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Padres54c740.74$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.7461346.3%284 W · 329 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Nationals46c730.66$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.338949.1%191 W · 198 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Padres54c729.99$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.791,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc1f…ab66backed Padres54c642$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.322751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a90…8218backed Nationals34c618.96$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.624751%126 W · 121 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Nationals46c600$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2781,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5532…c6dbbacked Nationals46c590.63$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.7219449%95 W · 99 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcda0…a51abacked Padres54c569.64$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.989651%49 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3839…e2eebacked Padres55c509.09$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.0910544.8%47 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Nationals48c506.69$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.115,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0229…ea6cbacked Padres68c483.82$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.8241747.2%197 W · 220 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3587…23adbacked Nationals47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007244.4%32 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Nationals5c420$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2196133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb653…85a4backed Nationals46c417.93$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.2514148.2%68 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Nationals48c385.11$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1832,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Nationals9c385$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.651650%8 W · 8 L+5.0wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+300.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Padres54c342.99$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.782,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03cd…9fdabacked Nationals46c333$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.1831346.6%146 W · 167 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Padres54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13842452.1%221 W · 203 L+15.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Padres53c241.67$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11433852.1%176 W · 162 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Padres53c214$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.5840548.9%198 W · 207 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Nationals47c212.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1131347.9%150 W · 163 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Nationals47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10063052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8097…8a5fbacked Padres52c211.54$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5411748.7%57 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Padres54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Padres53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9434051.2%174 W · 166 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Padres52c192.59$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.592,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Padres52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.312,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Nationals47c190$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.35648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71f…bd62backed Nationals48c179.99$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5313843.5%60 W · 78 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Nationals46c174$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.041,05150.4%530 W · 521 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e3…1962backed Nationals46c130.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6057545.9%264 W · 311 L+0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x974e…554fbacked Padres52c105.77$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd873…6102backed Nationals50c103.26$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4464…1b19backed Nationals49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Nationals47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1413…4bddbacked Padres55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456660.6%40 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84dc…9c02backed Padres53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4717954.7%98 W · 81 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6464…5c87backed Padres52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Nationals45c98.59$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.376,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6981…8ac5backed Nationals47c97.87$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4618545.9%85 W · 100 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5445…4e0bbacked Padres55c81.04$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.472536%9 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-29.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Padres55c80$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed Padres74c72.22$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8480680%645 W · 161 L+173.6wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Padres52c67$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1669547.5%330 W · 365 L-16.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Padres54c67$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8285047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ca6…ac40backed Padres57c66.65$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ac3…fe4bbacked Padres53c65$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.552100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fde…bdc8backed Nationals47c65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Padres54c64.81$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.811,29956.7%737 W · 562 L-0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae0d…1573backed Padres54c61$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.062100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd280…d138backed Nationals46c61$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe9f…4a4ebacked Nationals46c55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1089…01b8backed Padres55c55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc676…f35cbacked Padres51c54.9$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.925550.2%128 W · 127 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbba5…0b0dbacked Nationals47c52.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.73333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb64f…3237backed Nationals49c51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9916846.4%78 W · 90 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Nationals47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.517139.2%67 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Padres53c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.51,38855.1%765 W · 623 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Padres53c49$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0351955.3%287 W · 232 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x51a1…1467backed Nationals41c48.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.997328.8%21 W · 52 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ee4…b575backed Nationals48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051245.1%231 W · 281 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x639e…a9d4backed Nationals48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014945%67 W · 82 L-9.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5681…cac8backed Padres51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.225042%21 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Padres53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7488549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4917…16dabacked Padres54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.044456.8%25 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Padres54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.041,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58e…3af7backed Padres55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.365154.9%28 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Padres50c33.42$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.711,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe2c…4ae8backed Nationals47c31.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1524051.7%124 W · 116 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x65eb…eb0abacked Padres55c31.21$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.053100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Nationals46c28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.881,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Nationals42c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5565549.3%323 W · 332 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6724…275cbacked Nationals47c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.752133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-32.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x48fb…b900backed Padres55c24.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.05560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x799a…6a60backed Nationals50c22.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46e7…0dd0backed Padres51c22.55$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.052100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf29b…892ebacked Nationals50c22.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15d2…9f09backed Padres51c22.31$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.932100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b85…f9cabacked Nationals50c22.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd99…b567backed Nationals47c22.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+36.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.