Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd78ff958531dd4be56f1602d1ba7170b65df97a6f46097a3c50bf54145ed816d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 15c | 4,040$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.32 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 3c | 2,828$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 7c | 1,180$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.69 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 764.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 642.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 635.85$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.21 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 34c | 613.61$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.61 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 29c | 581.61$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.94 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e36…3d5fbacked Yes | 3c | 560$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 499.35$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 479.08$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…2433backed No | 78c | 442$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 389.44$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 8c | 370.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 32c | 341.89$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 28c | 300$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 69c | 273.59$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.01 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…6674backed Yes | 32c | 226.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.37 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 194.73$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 44c | 174$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 25c | 161.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 57c | 140$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 138.89$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 69c | 136.23$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 9c | 122.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 33c | 119.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 46c | 119.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 18c | 107$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 99.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 78c | 92.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 38c | 79.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 80c | 77.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 79c | 60.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 26c | 58.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…dde3backed No | 56c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 52.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 27c | 49.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 56c | 48.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 70c | 48.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed No | 75c | 42.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c1…8cbdbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 33c | 39.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 38.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed No | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 73c | 25.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…6b35backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 79c | 14.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.