Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3f1a0033e624141e06896b1c82eb26cb5b683597a681e3612b349a07fc64d8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 3c | 1,747$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 729.62$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.82 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 56c | 719.95$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.95 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 712.04$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.92 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 73c | 612.4$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.17 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 564.96$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 3c | 557.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 48c | 473.36$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.76 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 353.28$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 318.21$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 61c | 317$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.11 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc388…ed37backed Yes | 52c | 302.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.03 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 43c | 222.35$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.61 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 71c | 199.38$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1704…b0e1backed Yes | 78c | 191.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 54c | 185.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.35 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 51c | 181.54$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.83 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 58c | 179.39$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e36cbacked Yes | 58c | 171.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 59c | 168$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 164$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 43c | 158.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 158$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 64c | 155.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 66c | 152.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 150.32$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 46c | 144.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 48c | 139.64$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 54c | 137.93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 53c | 135.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 51c | 130.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 124.79$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 49c | 124.05$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 115.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 38c | 112.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 23c | 109.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 57c | 109.68$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 56c | 107.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 63c | 106.07$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 48c | 103.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 42c | 101.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 53c | 100.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 45c | 99.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 45c | 99.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 97.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 53c | 97.39$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 54c | 96.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 40c | 95.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 42c | 91.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 43c | 91.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 50c | 91.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 57c | 87.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 47c | 86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 49c | 85.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 51c | 82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 30c | 81.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 59c | 80.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 63c | 78.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 36c | 68.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 18c | 61.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 47c | 60.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 46c | 59.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…dde3backed Yes | 58c | 58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked No | 48c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 62c | 54.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 56c | 53.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked Yes | 58c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 41c | 52.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 39c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 66c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 50.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 47.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 52c | 45.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked No | 39c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 57c | 42.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…9db8backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 40.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…d3c3backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762f…1533backed Yes | 50c | 39.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 49c | 39.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 56c | 38.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 60c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 47c | 37.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 53c | 37.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 60c | 36.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed Yes | 55c | 36.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e1…dc9dbacked Yes | 57c | 34.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 57c | 34.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.