Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1edf767ddfaff7a30ec884166dfc2a2b46b7523de3526ce95252847882aa32d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 74c | 10,940$8,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,851.95 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 28c | 9,843$2,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,756.07 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 4c | 4,226$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.08 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 4c | 1,492$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 1,270$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 8c | 776.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 3c | 728.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 680.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 658.21$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 17c | 615.69$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.03 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 35c | 559.14$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.02 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 2c | 550$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 11c | 538.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 461.65$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 10c | 451.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 9c | 290.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 265.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 238.48$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…0bcebacked Yes | 39c | 227.31$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed Yes | 10c | 200.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 68c | 197.57$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 23c | 179.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 35c | 174.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 36c | 168.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 8c | 154.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 152.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 38c | 149.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…6674backed Yes | 21c | 147.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 28c | 145.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 30c | 145.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 39c | 142.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…fababacked Yes | 40c | 119.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 27c | 117.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 60c | 112.61$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 74c | 112.39$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 31c | 103.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 102.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 67c | 101.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 23c | 96.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0616…ea27backed Yes | 11c | 95.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 65c | 87.87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 32c | 79.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 61c | 78.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 70c | 72.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 65c | 72.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 35c | 71.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 16c | 71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6a8ebacked Yes | 36c | 69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 25c | 68.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 31c | 66.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762f…1533backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 70c | 61.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 62c | 60.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 68c | 58.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 45c | 58.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 39c | 57.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 52.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1704…b0e1backed Yes | 36c | 49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 38c | 43.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 56c | 41.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…aef4backed Yes | 41c | 40.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 41c | 40.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9379…1145backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 31c | 37.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 34.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…ec39backed Yes | 34c | 33.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 32c | 32.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 26.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 25.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 64c | 20.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…04d4backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 65c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 18.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 69c | 17.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 68c | 15.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.